State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Sask, S4S 7H9, Canada.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Sep 1;341:118096. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118096. Epub 2023 May 9.
The shrinkage and ecological degradation of the Aral Sea resulting from the uncontrolled use of water resources and the unregulated expansion of agriculture activities call for sustainable management of water-agriculture-ecology (WAE) nexus from a basin perspective. However, managers face thorny challenges brought by multiple uncertainties in the management and planning processes. In this study, an interval stochastic fuzzy programming (ISF) method is developed for tackling multiple uncertainties presented as probability distributions, flexible variables and interval parameters. Then, an ISF-WAE model is formulated for Aral Sea Basin, which considers 108 planning scenarios that reflect different food-security and ecology-restoration requirements, as well as risk-response attitudes of decision maker over a long-term planning horizon (2021-2050). Results reveal that for Aral Sea Basin: (i) managers should set strict acreage benchmarks for cereal crops, in which wheat would account for a range of [29.1, 31.2] % of the total agricultural area; (ii) for promoting ecological restoration, the proportion of agricultural water allocation should decrease by a range of [12.7, 16.1] % during the planning horizon; (iii) due to low water requirement and high ecological value of grassland, it is recommended to expand grassland area to improve the sustainability of the Aral Sea Basin in the case of limited water resources.
由于水资源的无节制使用和农业活动的不受监管扩张，咸海的萎缩和生态退化要求从流域角度对水-农业-生态（WAE）关系进行可持续管理。然而，管理者在管理和规划过程中面临着多种不确定性带来的棘手挑战。在本研究中，开发了一种区间随机模糊规划（ISF）方法，用于处理作为概率分布、灵活变量和区间参数呈现的多种不确定性。然后，针对咸海流域制定了一个 ISF-WAE 模型，该模型考虑了 108 个规划方案，这些方案反映了不同的粮食安全和生态恢复要求，以及决策者在长期规划期（2021-2050 年）内的风险应对态度。结果表明，对于咸海流域：（i）管理者应该为谷物设定严格的耕地基准，其中小麦将占总农业面积的[29.1，31.2]%；（ii）为了促进生态恢复，在规划期内，农业用水分配的比例应减少[12.7，16.1]%；（iii）由于草地的需水量低且生态价值高，建议在水资源有限的情况下扩大草地面积，以提高咸海流域的可持续性。
