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津巴布韦当前和未来气候情景下泰勒虫病传播媒介壁虱属硬蜱的生物地理学研究。

Biogeography of the theileriosis vector, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus under current and future climate scenarios of Zimbabwe.

机构信息

Division of Veterinary Technical Services, Ministry of Lands, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development, Harare, Zimbabwe.

Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of the Free State, PO Box 339, Bloemfontein, 9300, South Africa.

出版信息

Exp Appl Acarol. 2023 Jun;90(1-2):67-82. doi: 10.1007/s10493-023-00796-1. Epub 2023 May 12.

Abstract

Climate directly influences the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases at various spatial and temporal scales. Following the recent increased incidences of theileriosis in Zimbabwe, a disease mainly transmitted by Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, we determined lethal temperatures for the species and current and possible future distribution using the machine learning algorithm 'Maxent'. Rhipicephalus appendiculatus larvae had an upper lethal temperature (ULT) of about 44 ± 0.5 °C and this was marginally higher for nymphs and adults at 46 ± 0.5 °C. Environmental temperatures recorded in selected zonal tick microhabitats were below the determined lethal limits, indicating the ability of the tick to survive these regions. The resultant model under current climatic conditions showed areas with high suitability indices to the eastern, northeastern and southeastern parts of the country, mainly in Masvingo, Manicaland and Mashonaland Central provinces. Future predictions as determined by 2050 climatic conditions indicate a reduction in suitable habitats with the tick receding to presently cooler high elevation areas such as the eastern Highlands of Zimbabwe and a few isolated pockets in the interior of the country. Lowveld areas show low suitability under current climatic conditions and are expected to remain unsuitable in future. Overall, the study shows that R. appendiculatus distribution is constrained by climatic factors and helps identify areas of where occurrence of the species and the disease it transmits is highly likely. This will assist in optimizing disease surveillance and vector management strategies targeted at the species.

摘要

气候直接影响着媒介传播疾病在不同时空尺度上的流行病学。最近津巴布韦锥虫病(一种主要由边缘革蜱传播的疾病)发病率上升,我们利用机器学习算法“最大熵”确定了该物种的致死温度以及当前和未来可能的分布。边缘革蜱幼虫的上限致死温度(ULT)约为 44°C±0.5°C,若虫和成虫的 ULT 则略高,为 46°C±0.5°C。在选定的带状 tick 微生境中记录的环境温度低于确定的致死极限,表明蜱能够在这些地区生存。在当前气候条件下,模型显示该国东部、东北部和东南部地区(主要在马斯温戈、马尼卡兰和马绍纳兰中部省)具有高适宜性指数。根据 2050 年气候条件预测,随着 tick 向目前较凉爽的高海拔地区(如津巴布韦东部高地和该国内陆的一些孤立地区)退缩,适宜栖息地将会减少。低地地区在当前气候条件下适宜性较低,预计在未来仍将不适宜。总的来说,该研究表明,边缘革蜱的分布受到气候因素的限制,并有助于确定该物种和它传播的疾病可能发生的地区。这将有助于优化针对该物种的疾病监测和媒介管理策略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/62b5/10293362/ee5c5c9471c8/10493_2023_796_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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