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离散动态:灾害和冲突是国内流离失所的“驱动因素”吗?

Divergent dynamics: disasters and conflicts as 'drivers' of internal displacement?

机构信息

Professor and Director, Refugee Law Initiative, School of Advanced Study, University of London, United Kingdom.

出版信息

Disasters. 2024 Jan;48(1):e12589. doi: 10.1111/disa.12589. Epub 2023 Sep 15.

Abstract

Disasters and conflicts are both widely recognised as 'drivers' of internal displacement. Yet, despite a growing body of research and policy, there has been little consideration to date of how the different features of each 'context' shape the micro-level dynamics of internal displacement. Where and why are these dynamics similar across the two contexts and how do they differ? This paper draws on general concepts from the disaster field to develop a comparative analytical model of internal displacement dynamics in the disaster and conflict contexts. Based on inferences from the patchy extant data across the two contexts, it identifies and explains points of convergence and divergence between internal displacement dynamics in both the disaster and conflict contexts. This 'contextual' model of the micro-level dynamics of internal displacement has implications for academic debates, as well as for policy and practice, in the disaster, conflict, peace, climate change, and forced migration/displacement fields.

摘要

灾害和冲突都被广泛认为是国内流离失所的“驱动因素”。然而,尽管研究和政策不断增加,但迄今为止,对于每种“背景”的不同特征如何塑造国内流离失所的微观动态,几乎没有考虑。这些动态在这两种情况下的相似之处和不同之处在哪里?本文借鉴灾害领域的一般概念,为灾害和冲突背景下的国内流离失所动态发展了一个比较分析模型。基于这两种情况下现有数据的推断,它确定并解释了灾害和冲突背景下国内流离失所动态之间的趋同和分歧点。这种国内流离失所微观动态的“背景”模型对灾害、冲突、和平、气候变化以及被迫迁移/流离失所领域的学术辩论、政策和实践都具有重要意义。

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