State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment, East China University of Technology, Nanchang, 330013, China.
School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jun;30(29):74398-74408. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-27609-7. Epub 2023 May 20.
Rock burst is the main geological hazard in deep underground engineering. For the prediction of the intensity of rock burst, a model for prediction of rock burst intensity on the basis of multi-source evidence weight and error-eliminating theory was established. Four indexes including the ratio of rock's compressive-tensile strength [Formula: see text], the stress coefficient of rock [Formula: see text], the elastic energy index of rock Wet, and integrality coefficient Kv were chosen as the prediction variables of rock burst; the index weights are calculated by different weighting methods and fused with evidence theory to determine the final weight of each index. According to the theory of error-eliminating, taking "no rock burst" (I in classification standards of rock burst intensity) as the objective and using the error function to process 18 sets of typical rock burst data and the weight of evidence fusion as the normalized index limit loss value, a model for prediction of rock burst intensity was built. It is verified by the actual situation and three other models. Finally, the model has been applied to rock burst prediction of Zhongnanshan tunnel ventilation shaft. The results show that evidence theory fuses multi-source index weights and improves the method of determining index weights. The index value is processed by error-eliminating theory, and the limit value problem of index value normalization is optimized. The predicted results of the proposed model are consistent with the situation of Zhongnanshan tunnel. It improves the objectivity of the rock burst prediction process and provides a research idea for rock burst intensity prediction index.
岩爆是深部地下工程中的主要地质灾害。为了预测岩爆强度，建立了一种基于多源证据权重和误差消除理论的岩爆强度预测模型。选择岩石的抗压-抗拉强度比[Formula: see text]、岩石的应力系数[Formula: see text]、岩石的弹性能指数[Formula: see text]和完整性系数 Kv 这四个指标作为岩爆预测的变量；采用不同的赋权方法计算指标权重，并与证据理论融合，确定各指标的最终权重。根据误差消除理论，以“无岩爆”（岩爆强度分类标准中的 I 类）为目标，利用误差函数对 18 组典型岩爆数据和证据融合权重进行处理，作为归一化指标限值损失值，建立岩爆强度预测模型。并通过实际情况和另外三个模型进行验证。最后，该模型被应用于中南山隧道通风竖井的岩爆预测。结果表明，证据理论融合了多源指标权重，改进了确定指标权重的方法。通过误差消除理论对指标值进行处理，优化了指标值归一化的限值问题。所提出模型的预测结果与中南山隧道的情况一致，提高了岩爆预测过程的客观性，为岩爆强度预测指标提供了研究思路。
