Section of Herd Health and Animal Husbandry, School of Veterinary Medicine, University College Dublin, Stillorgan Road, Dublin 4, D04 W6F6, Ireland.
Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, University College Dublin, Stillorgan Road, Dublin 4, D04 W6F6, Ireland.
J Dairy Sci. 2023 Jul;106(7):4966-4977. doi: 10.3168/jds.2022-22519. Epub 2023 May 22.
Postnatal mortality among replacement stock has a detrimental effect on the social, economic, and environmental sustainability of dairy production. Calf mortality rates vary between countries and show differences in temporal trends; most, however, are characterized by high levels of between-farm variability. Explaining this variation can be difficult because herd-level information on management practices relevant to calf health is often not available. The Irish Johne's Control Programme (IJCP) contains a substantial on-farm monitoring program called the Veterinary Risk Assessment and Management Plan (VRAMP). Although this risk assessment is largely focused on factors relevant to the transmission of paratuberculosis, many of its principles are good practice biocontainment policies that are also advocated for the protection of calf health. The objectives of this study were (1) to quantify mortality in ear-tagged Irish dairy calves between 2016 and 2020 using both survival and risk approaches, (2) to determine risk factors for 100-d cumulative mortality hazard in ear-tagged Irish dairy calves between 2016 and 2020, (3) to determine whether 100-d cumulative mortality hazard was higher in ear-tagged calves within herds registered in the IJCP versus those that were not registered in the IJCP and whether there were differences between these cohorts over time, and (4) within IJCP herds, to determine whether VRAMP score or changes in VRAMP score were associated with 100-d cumulative mortality hazard. Excluding perinatal mortality, the overall 100-d cumulative mortality hazard was 4.1%. Calf mortality was consistently underestimated using risk approaches that did not account for calf censoring. Cox proportional hazards models showed that cumulative mortality hazard was greater in male calves; particularly, calves born to Jersey breed dams and those with a beef breed sire. Mortality hazard increased with increasing herd size, was highest in calves born in herds that contract-reared heifers, and lowest in those born in mixed dairy-beef enterprises. Mortality hazard decreased over time with the mortality hazard in 2020 being 0.83 times that of 2016. Mortality hazard was higher in IJCP-registered herds than nonregistered herds (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% CI 1.01-1.12), likely reflecting differences in herds that enrolled in the national program. However, we detected a significant interaction between IJCP status (enrolled vs. not enrolled) and year (hazard ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.92-1.00), indicating that the decrease in mortality hazard between 2016 and 2020 was greater in IJCP herds versus non-IJCP herds. Finally, increasing VRAMP scores (indicating higher risk for paratuberculosis transmission) were positively associated with increased calf mortality hazard. Postnatal calf mortality rates in Irish dairy herds declined between 2016 and 2020. Our study suggests that implementation of recommended biocontainment practices to control paratuberculosis in IJCP herds was associated with a reduction in calf mortality hazard.
产后死亡率对奶牛生产的社会、经济和环境可持续性有不利影响。牛犊死亡率因国家而异,且具有不同的时间趋势;然而,大多数国家的死亡率都表现出农场间高度的变异性。解释这种变异性可能很困难,因为有关牛犊健康的管理实践的牧场水平信息通常不可用。爱尔兰约翰氏病控制计划(IJCP)包含一个名为兽医风险评估和管理计划(VRAMP)的大型农场监测计划。尽管这种风险评估主要集中在与副结核病传播相关的因素上,但它的许多原则都是良好的生物遏制政策实践,也提倡保护牛犊健康。本研究的目的是:(1)使用生存和风险方法来量化 2016 年至 2020 年间耳标爱尔兰奶牛犊的死亡率;(2)确定 2016 年至 2020 年间耳标爱尔兰奶牛犊 100 天累积死亡率风险的因素;(3)确定在 IJCP 中注册的牛群中的耳标牛犊与未在 IJCP 中注册的牛群相比,100 天累积死亡率风险是否更高,以及这些队列随时间的变化;(4)在 IJCP 牛群中,确定 VRAMP 评分或 VRAMP 评分的变化是否与 100 天累积死亡率风险相关。不包括围产期死亡率,总的 100 天累积死亡率风险为 4.1%。使用不考虑牛犊删失的风险方法,牛犊死亡率一直被低估。Cox 比例风险模型显示,累积死亡率风险在雄性牛犊中更高;特别是,泽西奶用牛和带有肉牛种公牛的牛犊。死亡率风险随牛群规模的增加而增加,在合同育肥青年牛的牛群中最高,在混合奶牛-肉牛企业中最低。死亡率风险随时间的推移而降低,2020 年的死亡率风险是 2016 年的 0.83 倍。在 IJCP 注册的牛群中的死亡率风险高于未注册的牛群(风险比 1.06,95%CI 1.01-1.12),这可能反映了在全国性计划中注册的牛群之间的差异。然而,我们检测到 IJCP 状态(注册与未注册)和年份(风险比 0.96,95%CI 0.92-1.00)之间存在显著的交互作用,这表明 IJCP 牛群与非 IJCP 牛群之间的死亡率风险降低幅度更大。最后,VRAMP 评分的增加(表明副结核病传播的风险增加)与牛犊死亡率风险的增加呈正相关。爱尔兰奶牛场的产后牛犊死亡率在 2016 年至 2020 年间有所下降。我们的研究表明,在 IJCP 牛群中实施推荐的生物遏制实践以控制副结核病与牛犊死亡率风险的降低有关。