Shackleton J D, Follows M J, Thomas P J, Omta A W
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA.
Department of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA.
Clim Dyn. 2023;60(11-12):4083-4098. doi: 10.1007/s00382-022-06544-2. Epub 2022 Nov 4.
Glacial-interglacial cycles constitute large natural variations in Earth's climate. The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) marks a shift of the dominant periodicity of these climate cycles from to kyr. Recently, it has been suggested that this shift resulted from a gradual increase in the internal period (or equivalently, a decrease in the natural frequency) of the system. As a result, the system would then have locked to ever higher multiples of the external forcing period. We find that the internal period is sensitive to the strength of positive feedbacks in the climate system. Using a carbon cycle model in which feedbacks between calcifier populations and ocean alkalinity mediate atmospheric CO we simulate stepwise periodicity changes similar to the MPT through such a mechanism. Due to the internal dynamics of the system, the periodicity shift occurs up to millions of years after the change in the feedback strength is imposed. This suggests that the cause for the MPT may have occurred a significant time before the observed periodicity shift.
冰期-间冰期循环构成了地球气候的巨大自然变化。中更新世过渡(MPT)标志着这些气候循环的主导周期从[具体数值1] kyr转变为[具体数值2] kyr。最近,有人提出这种转变是由于系统内部周期(或等效地,自然频率降低)逐渐增加所致。结果,系统随后会锁定到外部强迫周期的越来越高的倍数。我们发现内部周期对气候系统中正向反馈的强度敏感。使用一个碳循环模型,其中钙化生物种群与海洋碱度之间的反馈调节大气中的二氧化碳,我们通过这样一种机制模拟了类似于MPT的逐步周期性变化。由于系统的内部动力学,周期性转变在反馈强度改变施加数百万年后才发生。这表明MPT的原因可能在观察到的周期性转变之前的相当长一段时间就已出现。