Zhang Ying, Tian Qi-Qi, Wei Xiao-Yu, Zhang Shao-Bo, Hu Wen-Dong, Li Ming-Gang
Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China.
State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2023 Jun 8;44(6):3108-3116. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202207058.
Both particulate matter with aerodynamics of less than 2.5 (PM) and ozone are the two main air pollutants in China, which seriously endanger human health. To estimate the adverse impacts of PM and ozone on human health during the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions in Chengdu, both the generalized additive model and the nonlinear distribution lag model of epidemiology were adopted to explore the exposure-response relationship coefficients of daily ozone 8h maximum concentration average (O), as well as that of PM on disease deaths in Chengdu from 2014 to 2016. On this basis, the environmental risk model and environmental value assessment model were both adopted to evaluate the health effects and health benefits in Chengdu from 2016 to 2020, respectively, with the assumption that PM and O concentration were reduced to specified air pollution control limits (35 μg·m and 70 μg·m, respectively). The results showed 1 the annual concentration of PM presented gradually decreasing trends in Chengdu from 2016 to 2020. Specifically, (PM) from 63 μg·m in 2016 decreased to 40.92 μg·m in 2020. The average annual decline rate was approximately 9.8%. In contrast, the annual concentration of O from 155 μg·m in 2016 increased to 169 μg·m in 2020, and the increasing rate was approximately 2.4%. 2 Both PM and O had lag effects on three types of disease deaths. Under the maximum lag effect, the corresponding exposure-response relationship coefficients of PMwere 0.0003600, 0.0005001, and 0.0009237 for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory premature deaths, respectively, whereas the corresponding of O were 0.0003103, 0.0006726, and 0.0007002, respectively. 3 If (PM) was reduced to the national secondary standard limit (35 μg·m), the corresponding number of health beneficiaries and economic benefits declined yearly. Specifically, the health beneficiary number of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease deaths were reduced from 1128, 416, and 328 in 2016 to 229, 96, and 54 in 2020, respectively. There were a total number of 3314 avoidable premature deaths for all-cause diseases during the five years, resulting in a total health economic benefit of 7.66 billion yuan. 4 If we assume that (O) was reduced to the concentration limit specified by the World Health Organization (70 μg·m), the corresponding number of health beneficiaries and economic benefits were increasing yearly. Specifically, the health beneficiaries' numbers of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory disease deaths rose from 1919, 779, and 606 in 2016 to 2429, 1157, and 635 in 2020, respectively. The annual average growth rates of avoidable all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 6.85% and 10.72%, respectively, which was higher than the annual average rise rate of (O). There were 10790 total avoidable deaths from all-cause diseases during the five years, resulting in a total health economic benefit of 26.62 billion yuan. These findings indicate that PM pollution in Chengdu had been well controlled, whereas O pollution had become more severe and had become another key air pollutant threatening human health. Therefore, the synchronous control of PM and ozone should be implemented in the future.
空气动力学直径小于2.5的颗粒物(PM)和臭氧都是中国的主要空气污染物,严重危害人类健康。为估算成都市在实施空气污染防治行动期间PM和臭氧对人类健康的不利影响,采用广义相加模型和流行病学非线性分布滞后模型,探究2014 - 2016年成都市日臭氧8小时最大浓度均值(O)以及PM与疾病死亡的暴露 - 反应关系系数。在此基础上,分别采用环境风险模型和环境价值评估模型,假设PM和O浓度降至规定的空气污染控制限值(分别为35 μg·m和70 μg·m),评估2016 - 2020年成都市的健康影响和健康效益。结果显示:1. 2016 - 2020年成都市PM年均浓度呈逐渐下降趋势。具体而言,PM从2016年的63 μg·m降至2020年的40.92 μg·m,年均下降率约为9.8%。相比之下,O年均浓度从2016年的155 μg·m升至2020年的169 μg·m,上升率约为2.4%。2. PM和O对三类疾病死亡均有滞后效应。在最大滞后效应下,PM导致全因、心血管和呼吸系过早死亡的相应暴露 - 反应关系系数分别为0.0003600、0.0005001和0.0009237,而O的相应系数分别为0.0003103、0.0006726和0.0007002。3. 若将PM降至国家二级标准限值(35 μg·m),相应的健康受益人数和经济效益逐年下降。具体而言,全因、心血管和呼吸系疾病死亡的健康受益人数分别从2016年的1128、416和328降至2020年的229、96和54。五年间全因疾病共避免3314例过早死亡,产生的健康经济效益总计76.6亿元。4. 若假设将O降至世界卫生组织规定的浓度限值(70 μg·m),相应的健康受益人数和经济效益逐年增加。具体而言,全因、心血管和呼吸系疾病死亡的健康受益人数分别从2016年的1919、779和606升至2020年的2429、1157和635。全因和心血管可避免死亡率的年均增长率分别为6.85%和10.72%,高于O的年均上升率。五年间全因疾病共避免10790例死亡,产生的健康经济效益总计266.2亿元。这些研究结果表明,成都市的PM污染已得到较好控制,而O污染变得更加严重,已成为威胁人类健康的另一种关键空气污染物。因此,未来应同步控制PM和臭氧。