Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA.
Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA.
Environ Res. 2019 Nov;178:108687. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.108687. Epub 2019 Aug 26.
Health impacts of surface ozone (O) and fine particulate matter (PM) are of major concern worldwide. In this work, the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program tool is applied to estimate the health and economic impacts of projected changes in O and PM in the U.S. in future (2046-2055) decade relative to current (2001-2010) decade under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios. Future annual-mean O reductions under RCP 4.5 prevent ~1,800 all-cause mortality, 761 respiratory hospital admissions (HA), and ~1.2 million school loss days annually, and result in economic benefits of ~16 billion, 29 million, and 132 million U.S. dollars (USD), respectively. By contrast, the projected future annual-mean O increases under RCP8.5 cause ~2,400 mortality, 941 respiratory HA, and ~1.6 million school loss days annually and result in economic disbenefits of ~21 billion, 36 million, and 175 million USD, respectively. Health benefits of reduced O double under RCP4.5 and health dis-benefits of increased O increase by 1.5 times under RCP8.5 in future with 2050 population and baseline incidence rate. Because of the reduction in projected future PM over CONUS under both scenarios, the annual avoided all-cause deaths, cardiovascular HA, respiratory HA, and work loss days are ~63,000 and ~83,000, ~5,300 and ~7,000, ~12,000 and ~15,000, and ~7.8 million and ~10 million, respectively, leading to economic benefits of ~560 and ~740 billion, ~240 and ~320 million, ~450 and ~590 million, and ~1,400 and ~1,900 million USD for RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Health benefits of reduced PM for future almost double under both scenarios with the largest benefits in urban areas. RCP8.5 projects larger health and economic benefits due to a greater reduction in PM but with a warmer atmosphere and higher O pollution than RCP4.5. RCP4.5 leads to multiple-benefit goals including reduced O and PM, reduced mortality and morbidity, and saved costs. Greater reduction in future PM under RCP4.5 should be considered to achieve larger multi-benefits.
臭氧（O）和细颗粒物（PM）的地表浓度对健康的影响是全世界共同关注的主要问题。本研究应用环境效益制图与分析计划工具，根据代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5 和 8.5 气候情景，预估未来（2046-2055 年）十年美国的 O 和 PM 浓度变化对健康和经济的影响。RCP4.5 情景下，未来每年 O 浓度的降低预计可预防约 1800 例全因死亡、761 例呼吸道疾病住院（HA）和 120 万例学校缺课，其经济效益分别约为 160 亿美元、2900 万美元和 1.32 亿美元。相比之下，RCP8.5 情景下，未来每年 O 浓度升高预计将导致约 2400 例死亡、941 例呼吸道疾病住院和 160 万例学校缺课，其经济损失分别约为 210 亿美元、3600 万美元和 1.75 亿美元。在 RCP4.5 情景下，O 浓度降低的健康效益翻了一番，而在 RCP8.5 情景下，O 浓度升高的健康损失增加了 1.5 倍。此外，考虑到未来 2050 年人口和基线发病率，O 浓度降低导致未来每年避免的全因死亡、心血管疾病 HA、呼吸道疾病 HA 和工作缺勤分别约为 63000 例和 83000 例、5300 例和 7000 例、12000 例和 15000 例和 780 万例和 1000 万例，经济效益分别约为 5600 亿美元和 7400 亿美元、2400 万美元和 3200 万美元、4500 万美元和 5900 万美元和 1400 亿美元和 1900 亿美元。由于未来两个情景下，大陆地区 PM 浓度的降低，每年避免的所有原因死亡、心血管疾病 HA、呼吸道疾病 HA 和工作缺勤分别约为 63000 例和 83000 例、5300 例和 7000 例、12000 例和 15000 例和 780 万例和 1000 万例，经济效益分别约为 560 亿美元和 740 亿美元、240 亿美元和 320 亿美元、450 亿美元和 590 亿美元和 1400 亿美元和 1900 亿美元。在两个情景下，PM 浓度降低对健康的影响几乎翻了一番，其中城市地区的效益最大。RCP8.5 情景项目的健康和经济效益更大，因为 PM 浓度降低幅度更大，但大气温度更高，O 污染更严重。RCP4.5 可以实现多种效益目标，包括减少 O 和 PM 浓度、降低死亡率和发病率以及节约成本。为了实现更大的多重效益，应考虑在未来进一步减少 PM 浓度。
