Department of Sociology and Anthropology, James Madison University, Harrisonburg, Virginia, USA.
Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of Anthropology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
Am J Biol Anthropol. 2023 Aug;181(4):646-652. doi: 10.1002/ajpa.24797. Epub 2023 Jun 14.
The second epidemiological transition describes a shift in predominant causes of death from infectious to degenerative (non-communicable) diseases associated with the demographic transition from high to low levels of mortality and fertility. In England, the epidemiological transition followed the Industrial Revolution, but there is little reliable historical data on cause of death beforehand. Because of the association between the demographic and epidemiological transitions, skeletal data can potentially be used to examine demographic trends as a proxy for the latter. This study uses skeletal data to examine differences in survivorship in London, England in the decades preceding and following initial industrialization and the second epidemiological transition.
We use data (from n = 924 adults) from London cemeteries (New Churchyard, New Bunhill Fields, St. Bride's Lower Churchyard, and St. Bride's Church Fleet Street) in use prior to and during industrialization (c. 1569-1853 CE). We assess associations between estimated adult age at death and time period (pre-industrial vs. industrial) using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.
We find evidence of significantly lower adult survivorship prior to industrialization (c. 1569-1669 and 1670-1739 CE) compared to the industrial period (c. 1740-1853 CE) (p < 0.001).
Our results are consistent with historical evidence that, in London, survivorship was improving in the later 18th century, prior to the recognized beginning of the second epidemiological transition. These findings support the use of skeletal demographic data to examine the context of the second epidemiological transition in past populations.
第二次流行病学转变描述了主要死亡原因从传染病向退行性（非传染性）疾病的转变，这种转变与死亡率和生育率从高到低的人口转变有关。在英国，流行病学转变紧随工业革命，但在此之前，可靠的死因历史数据很少。由于人口和流行病学转变之间存在关联，骨骼数据可以潜在地用于检查人口趋势，作为后者的代表。本研究使用骨骼数据来检查在初始工业化和第二次流行病学转变前后的几十年中，伦敦人口的生存差异。
我们使用来自伦敦公墓（新教堂墓地、新邦希尔菲尔德、圣布赖德下教堂墓地和圣布赖德教堂舰队街）的骨骼数据（来自 n = 924 名成年人），这些公墓在工业化之前和期间（约 1569-1853 年）在使用。我们使用 Kaplan-Meier 生存分析评估估计的成人死亡年龄与时间段（工业化前与工业化）之间的关联。
我们发现，与工业化时期（约 1740-1853 年）相比，工业化之前（约 1569-1669 年和 1670-1739 年）的成人生存能力明显较低（p<0.001）。
我们的结果与历史证据一致，即伦敦的生存能力在 18 世纪后期有所提高，早于公认的第二次流行病学转变的开始。这些发现支持使用骨骼人口数据来检查过去人口中第二次流行病学转变的背景。
