Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Division of Infectious Diseases & Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Nat Commun. 2023 Jun 15;14(1):3563. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-39322-7.
Globally, excess deaths during 2020-21 outnumbered documented COVID-19 deaths by 9.5 million, primarily driven by deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with limited vital surveillance. Here we unravel the contributions of probable COVID-19 deaths from other changes in mortality related to pandemic control measures using medically-certified death registrations from Madurai, India-an urban center with well-functioning vital surveillance. Between March, 2020 and July, 2021, all-cause deaths in Madurai exceeded expected levels by 30% (95% confidence interval: 27-33%). Although driven by deaths attributed to cardiovascular or cerebrovascular conditions, diabetes, senility, and other uncategorized causes, increases in these attributions were restricted to medically-unsupervised deaths, and aligned with surges in confirmed or attributed COVID-19 mortality, likely reflecting mortality among unconfirmed COVID-19 cases. Implementation of lockdown measures was associated with a 7% (0-13%) reduction in all-cause mortality, driven by reductions in deaths attributed to injuries, infectious diseases and maternal conditions, and cirrhosis and other liver conditions, respectively, but offset by a doubling in cancer deaths. Our findings help to account for gaps between documented COVID-19 mortality and excess all-cause mortality during the pandemic in an LMIC setting.
全球范围内,2020-21 年的超额死亡人数比有记录的 COVID-19 死亡人数多出 950 万,主要是由于低中等收入国家(LMICs)的死亡人数有限,生命监测有限。在这里,我们使用印度 Madurai 的医学认证死亡登记来揭示与大流行控制措施相关的死亡率变化导致的可能 COVID-19 死亡的贡献,Madurai 是一个具有良好运行生命监测的城市中心。2020 年 3 月至 2021 年 7 月,Madurai 的全因死亡人数比预期水平高出 30%(95%置信区间:27-33%)。尽管这些归因于心血管或脑血管疾病、糖尿病、衰老和其他未分类原因的死亡人数有所增加,但这些归因仅限于未经医学监督的死亡人数,并且与确诊或归因于 COVID-19 的死亡率的激增相一致,这可能反映了未经证实的 COVID-19 病例的死亡率。封锁措施的实施与全因死亡率降低 7%(0-13%)有关,这主要归因于伤害、传染病和产妇疾病、肝硬化和其他肝脏疾病导致的死亡率降低,但癌症死亡人数增加了一倍。我们的研究结果有助于解释在低中等收入国家(LMICs)大流行期间记录的 COVID-19 死亡率与超额全因死亡率之间的差距。
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