Therborn G, Roebroek J
Int J Health Serv. 1986;16(3):319-38. doi: 10.2190/DNXX-MU7P-9MJ6-DLA2.
The rise of the welfare state in the 1960s and 1970s meant important changes within the Western states: apparatuses of armed forces, bureaucratic ordering, and public transport and communication became institutions of transfer payments to households, and public education, caring and social services. In this article we describe the influence of the current economic crisis on the welfare state. Average yearly growth of social security expenditure continues, but has declined since 1981. Generous systems of social security clearly provide no security against the consequences of the economic crisis, especially unemployment. Public commitment to social security and full employment are largely independent of each other. We describe how, under the surface of welfare state growth, the political relations of force have changed in favor of those social forces advocating fundamental reappraisal of the welfare state over those supporting its maintenance or extension. The resistance to significant changes is so strong, however, that fundamental reconstruction of the welfare state is as yet excluded. We hold that the welfare state is an irreversible major institution of advanced capitalist countries, as long as democracy prevails. The building of a majoritarian anti-welfare state coalition seems impossible for the foreseeable future, but in some countries significant cuts must be expected; we end by specifying some economic and political preconditions for such cuts.
20世纪60年代和70年代福利国家的兴起意味着西方国家内部发生了重大变化：武装部队机构、官僚秩序以及公共交通和通信成为向家庭进行转移支付的机构，还有公共教育、照料和社会服务。在本文中，我们描述了当前经济危机对福利国家的影响。社会保障支出的年均增长仍在继续，但自1981年以来有所下降。慷慨的社会保障制度显然无法防范经济危机的后果，尤其是失业问题。公众对社会保障和充分就业的承诺在很大程度上相互独立。我们描述了在福利国家增长的表象之下，力量的政治关系如何发生了变化，有利于那些主张对福利国家进行根本性重新评估的社会力量，而不利于那些支持维持或扩大福利国家的社会力量。然而，对重大变革的抵制非常强烈，以至于福利国家的根本性重建至今仍被排除在外。我们认为，只要民主盛行，福利国家就是发达资本主义国家不可逆转的主要制度。在可预见的未来，建立一个多数主义的反福利国家联盟似乎是不可能的，但在一些国家，大幅削减开支是可以预期的；我们最后阐述了此类削减的一些经济和政治前提条件。
