Student Research Committee, School of Public Health, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran.
Student Research Committee, School of Medicine, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran.
BMC Public Health. 2023 Jun 20;23(1):1190. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16121-9.
Leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease and Iran is one of the ten countries with has the highest estimated cases of leishmaniasis. This study aimed to determine the time trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) incidence using the ARIMA model in Shahroud County, Semnan, Iran.
In this study, 725 patients with leishmaniasis were selected in the Health Centers of Shahroud during 2009-2020. Demographic characteristics including; history of traveling, history of leishmaniasis, co-morbidity of other family members, history of treatment, underlying disease, and diagnostic measures were collected using the patients' information listed in the Health Ministry portal. The Box-Jenkins approach was applied to fit the SARIMA model for CL incidence from 2009 to 2020. All statistical analyses were done by using Minitab software version 14.
The mean age of patients was 28.2 ± 21.3 years. The highest and lowest annual incidence of leishmaniasis were in 2018 and 2017, respectively. The average ten-year incidence was 132 per 100,000 population. The highest and lowest incidence of the disease were 592 and 195 for 100,000 population in the years 2011 and 2017, respectively. The best model was SARIMA (3,1,1) (0,1,2) (AIC: 324.3, BIC: 317.7 and RMSE: 0.167).
This study suggested that time series models would be useful tools for predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence trends; therefore, the SARIMA model could be used in planning public health programs. It will predict the course of the disease in the coming years and run the solutions to reduce the cases of the disease.
利什曼病是一种人畜共患病，伊朗是估计有最高利什曼病病例的十个国家之一。本研究旨在使用 ARIMA 模型确定伊朗塞姆南省沙赫鲁德县皮肤利什曼病（CL）发病率的时间趋势。
在这项研究中，选择了 2009 年至 2020 年期间沙赫鲁德卫生中心的 725 例利什曼病患者。使用卫生部门户列出的患者信息，收集人口统计学特征，包括：旅行史、利什曼病史、其他家庭成员的合并症、治疗史、潜在疾病和诊断措施。应用 Box-Jenkins 方法拟合 2009 年至 2020 年 CL 发病率的 SARIMA 模型。所有统计分析均使用 Minitab 软件版本 14 进行。
患者的平均年龄为 28.2±21.3 岁。利什曼病的最高和最低年发病率分别出现在 2018 年和 2017 年。平均十年发病率为每 10 万人 132 例。发病率最高和最低的年份分别为 2011 年和 2017 年，每 10 万人分别为 592 例和 195 例。最佳模型为 SARIMA（3,1,1）（0,1,2）（AIC：324.3，BIC：317.7 和 RMSE：0.167）。
本研究表明，时间序列模型将是预测皮肤利什曼病发病率趋势的有用工具；因此，SARIMA 模型可用于规划公共卫生计划。它将预测未来几年疾病的进程，并提出解决方案来减少疾病的发生。
