2014 年至 2019 年伊朗西南部高发地区皮肤利什曼病的流行病学和临床特征及其时间趋势模型。

Epidemiological and clinical features of cutaneous leishmaniasis and its time trend model in a high-endemic focus of disease in the southwest of Iran from 2014 to 2019.

机构信息

Department of Public Health, School of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, 7153675541, Iran.

Research Center for Health Sciences, Institute of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, 7153675541, Iran.

出版信息

Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2022 Jun 1;116(6):538-544. doi: 10.1093/trstmh/trab166.

DOI:10.1093/trstmh/trab166

PMID:34791489

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a tropical infection with a relatively high incidence rate in Iran. The present study aimed to explore the time trend and associated factors of CL in Dezful, in southwest Iran.

METHODS

This case series study was conducted on all CL patients registered from 2014 to 2019. The descriptive analysis of the data was done using SPSS 20 software and the time series model on the number of cases was run through Interactive Time Series Modeling software.

RESULTS

A total of 5349 leishmaniasis cases were identified in the study area during 2014-2019. The highest incidence rate was 35 840 per 100 000 in 2014. The fitted time series model revealed a decreasing trend with an annual periodic pattern. The mean age of infection was 19.82 y (standard deviation 21.87). The infection was most frequent in the 1-10 y age group (41.7%). Also, females were more prone to leishmaniasis (54.7%). Most lesions were located on the hand (23.1%), face (19.7%), and forearm (17.75%) and 48.5% of patients had only one lesion.

CONCLUSIONS

The results revealed a decreasing trend of leishmaniasis in Dezful. It has been predicted that this infection will reach a minimum rate (300 per 100 000) in the winter of 2021.

摘要

背景

皮肤利什曼病（CL）是一种热带传染病，在伊朗的发病率相对较高。本研究旨在探讨伊朗西南部德尔祖夫（Dezful）地区 CL 的时间趋势和相关因素。

方法

本病例系列研究纳入了 2014 年至 2019 年期间登记的所有 CL 患者。使用 SPSS 20 软件对数据进行描述性分析，并通过交互式时间序列建模软件对病例数进行时间序列模型分析。

结果

在 2014 年至 2019 年期间，研究区域共发现 5349 例利什曼病病例。发病率最高的是 2014 年的 35840 例/10 万。拟合的时间序列模型显示出下降趋势，并呈年度周期性模式。感染的平均年龄为 19.82 岁（标准差为 21.87 岁）。感染最常见于 1-10 岁年龄组（41.7%）。此外，女性更容易感染利什曼病（54.7%）。大多数病变位于手部（23.1%）、面部（19.7%）和前臂（17.75%），48.5%的患者只有一个病变。