Program in Global Health and Health Security, College of Public Health, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Faculty of Public Health, Da Nang University of Medical Technology and Pharmacy, Da Nang, Viet Nam.
Program in Global Health and Health Security, College of Public Health, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Molecular Parasitology and Tropical Diseases, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Environ Res. 2023 Sep 15;233:116448. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116448. Epub 2023 Jun 21.
BACKGROUND: Climate change plays a significant role in global health threats, particularly with respiratory diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, but the long-term global-scale impact of climate change on these diseases' mortality remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of COPD and asthma at national levels. METHODS: We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data of ASMR of COPD and asthma from 2000 to 2018. The climate change index was represented as the deviance percentage of temperature (DPT) and relative humidity (DPRH), calculated based on 19-year temperature and humidity averages. Annual temperature, RH, and fine particulate matter (PM) levels in 185 countries/regions were obtained from ERA5 and the OECD's environmental statistics database. General linear mixed-effect regression models were used to examine the associations between climate change with the log of ASMR (LASMR) of COPD and asthma. RESULTS: After adjusting for annual PM, SDI level, smoking prevalence, and geographical regions, a 0.26% increase in DPT was associated with decreases of 0.016, 0.017, and 0.014 per 100,000 people in LASMR of COPD and 0.042, 0.046, and 0.040 per 100,000 people in LASMR of asthma for both genders, males, and females. A 2.68% increase in DPRH was associated with increases of 0.009 and 0.011 per 100,000 people in LASMR of COPD. We observed a negative association of DPT with LASMR for COPD in countries/regions with temperatures ranging from 3.8 to 29.9 °C and with LASMR for asthma ranging from -5.3-29.9 °C. However, we observed a positive association of DPRH with LASMR for both COPD and asthma in the RH range of 41.2-67.2%. CONCLUSION: Climate change adaptation and mitigation could be crucial in reducing the associated COPD and asthma mortality rates, particularly in regions most vulnerable to temperature and humidity fluctuations.
背景：气候变化对全球健康威胁，尤其是对慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）和哮喘等呼吸道疾病，具有重要影响。然而，气候变化对这些疾病死亡率的长期全球影响仍不清楚。
目的：本研究旨在调查气候变化对各国 COPD 和哮喘的年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）的影响。
方法：我们使用了 2000 年至 2018 年全球疾病负担（GBD）数据中 COPD 和哮喘的 ASMR。气候变化指数用温度偏差百分比（DPT）和相对湿度偏差百分比（DPRH）来表示，基于 19 年的温度和湿度平均值计算得出。185 个国家/地区的年平均气温、相对湿度和细颗粒物（PM）水平从 ERA5 和经合组织的环境统计数据库中获取。采用广义线性混合效应回归模型，分析气候变化与 COPD 和哮喘的 ASMR 对数（LASMR）之间的关系。
结果：在调整了每年的 PM、社会发展指数（SDI）水平、吸烟率和地理区域后，DPT 每增加 0.26%，COPD 和哮喘的 LASMR 分别降低 0.016、0.017 和 0.014/10 万，男女两性、男性和女性的 LASMR 分别降低 0.042、0.046 和 0.040/10 万。DPRH 每增加 2.68%，COPD 的 LASMR 增加 0.009/10 万，哮喘的 LASMR 增加 0.011/10 万。我们观察到，DPT 与 3.8-29.9°C 温度范围内的 COPD 的 LASMR 呈负相关，与-5.3-29.9°C 温度范围内的哮喘的 LASMR 呈负相关。然而，我们观察到 DPRH 与 COPD 和哮喘的 LASMR 呈正相关，相对湿度在 41.2-67.2%之间。
结论：气候变化适应和减缓措施对于降低相关 COPD 和哮喘死亡率至关重要，特别是在对温度和湿度波动最敏感的地区。
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022-2
BMC Public Health. 2025-2-3
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