China Resources & Environment and Development Academy (REDA) and College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095, PR China.
Kemper and Ethel Marley Foundation Chair, Morrison School of Agribusiness, W.P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, Mesa, AZ, USA.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Oct 15;344:118423. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118423. Epub 2023 Jun 23.
This study uses a nationally representative rural household survey from China, the difference-in-difference, three-step approach, and Seemingly Unrelated Regression methods to assess the impacts of China's new agricultural subsidy on chemical fertilizer use, heterogeneity effect, and mechanism. The results show that, first, the new agriculture subsidy reduces the use of chemical fertilizer by about 7.2 percent. A series of robustness tests confirm the finding. Second, the heterogeneity analysis shows that the subsidy's negative impact on fertilizer use is substantially greater among younger farmers than among older farmers. The negative effect also is significantly more in the main grain-producing areas than in non-grain-producing regions in China. Third, the mediating effect analysis shows that farmland scale mediates 8.3 percent of fertilizer use, and the adoption of agricultural machinery mediates 48.6 percent of fertilizer use. Our findings underscore the positive role that reforming the agrarian subsidy policy plays in sustainable development.
本研究使用中国具有全国代表性的农村家庭调查数据，采用双重差分法、三步法和似乎不相关回归方法，评估了中国新农业补贴对化肥使用的影响、异质性效应及其机制。结果表明：第一，新农业补贴使化肥使用减少了约 7.2%。一系列稳健性测试证实了这一发现。第二，异质性分析表明，在年轻农民中，补贴对化肥使用的负面影响比老年农民更大。在中国的主要粮食产区，这种负面影响也明显大于非粮食产区。第三，中介效应分析表明，耕地规模中介了 8.3%的化肥使用，农业机械的采用则中介了 48.6%的化肥使用。我们的研究结果强调了改革农业补贴政策对可持续发展的积极作用。
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