Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh.
Water Resources Management, Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh.
Environ Monit Assess. 2023 Jun 26;195(7):886. doi: 10.1007/s10661-023-11461-w.
Bangladesh, the largest delta in the world, is situated over the flow of more than 700 rivers. The Ganges is a transboundary river, and it takes the Padma after meeting Jamuna near Aricha. The Padma River's morphology and hydraulic parameters are so dynamic that it erodes a large portion of land every year. However, the situation of erosion has been very threatening since 2014 which is almost the same period when the construction of the Padma Bridge started. Our Study on the erosion-accretion rate and bar dynamics of the selected reach of Padma River shows that the downstream right bank of this river lost around 134.85 sq. km of land between 2003 and 2021. The total bar area has also increased to 76.8%. Land use land classification (LULC) analysis was done for the years 2003, 2009, 2015, and 2021 to predict how the river might act in the future. For this prediction, artificial neural network (ANN) system has been used, and the predicted land use map was generated for 2027. The current kappa validation was 0.869, and the accuracy of the prediction was 87.05%. This study aims at analyzing the current morphological condition and its connection to the construction of the Padma Bridge and also predicts how the lower Padma River might act in near future. According to the study findings, in absence of prompt and appropriate measures, this country is highly susceptible to experiencing catastrophic consequences.
孟加拉国是世界上最大的三角洲，位于超过 700 条河流的交汇处。恒河是一条跨国界河流，在阿鲁恰附近与雅穆纳河汇合后形成帕德玛河。帕德玛河的形态和水力参数非常活跃，每年都会侵蚀大量土地。然而，自 2014 年以来，侵蚀情况一直非常严重，而此时正是帕德玛大桥开始建设的时期。我们对帕德玛河选定河段的侵蚀-淤积率和沙洲动力的研究表明，自 2003 年至 2021 年，该河的右岸下游损失了约 134.85 平方公里的土地。沙洲总面积也增加了 76.8%。对 2003 年、2009 年、2015 年和 2021 年的土地利用土地分类（LULC）进行了分析，以预测该河未来的行为。为此预测，使用了人工神经网络（ANN）系统，并生成了 2027 年的预测土地利用图。目前的kappa 验证值为 0.869，预测的准确性为 87.05%。本研究旨在分析当前的形态状况及其与帕德玛大桥建设的关系，并预测未来帕德玛河下游可能的行为。根据研究结果，如果不采取及时和适当的措施，该国极易遭受灾难性后果。
