Dean Phil, Gaulin Maclean, Seegert Nathan, Yang Mu-Jeung
University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA.
David Eccles School of Business, The University of Utah, 1655 East Campus Center Drive, Spencer Fox Eccles Business Bldg, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA.
Int Tax Public Financ. 2023 May 18:1-27. doi: 10.1007/s10797-023-09778-w.
Policymakers were surprised to find increases in sales tax revenues in 2020 due to expectations that they would drop 8-20%. We investigate this puzzle and provide novel insights into consumption taxes based on this experience. Using a case study from the State of Utah, we document that shifts in the structure of consumption played a significant role in the robustness of sales tax revenue. Two factors stand out in our results. The first factor is the structure of the tax base for sales taxes in the USA. This tax base covers only a subset of personal consumption, excluding, for example, many services. During the pandemic, when services were restricted or shut down, this caused a shift in spending toward goods that are more likely to be in the sales tax base. The second factor is the boom in e-commerce during the pandemic, which boosted sales tax collections. This was catalyzed by recent legal changes that made the collection of sales taxes in e-commerce easier. Interestingly, this e-commerce boost also shifted the point of sale and related sales tax revenues away from urban areas toward suburban areas. Our case study of the pandemic's effect on sales taxes in the USA generally, and Utah's experience specifically, provides lessons for consumption taxes, such as the VAT more broadly, and lessons on the role of consumption taxes for tax revenue volatility.
政策制定者惊讶地发现，2020年销售税收入有所增加，因为他们原本预计会下降8%-20%。我们对这一谜题进行了调查，并基于这一经验对消费税提供了新的见解。通过对犹他州的案例研究，我们记录了消费结构的变化在销售税收入的稳健性方面发挥了重要作用。我们的研究结果中有两个因素尤为突出。第一个因素是美国销售税的税基结构。这个税基只涵盖个人消费的一个子集，例如，不包括许多服务。在疫情期间，当服务受到限制或关闭时，这导致支出转向更有可能属于销售税基的商品。第二个因素是疫情期间电子商务的繁荣，这推动了销售税的征收。这是由最近的法律变化促成的，这些变化使电子商务中的销售税征收变得更容易。有趣的是，这种电子商务的繁荣也将销售点及相关销售税收入从城市地区转移到了郊区。我们对疫情对美国销售税的影响进行的案例研究，总体而言，以及犹他州的具体经验，为消费税（例如更广泛的增值税）提供了经验教训，也为消费税在税收收入波动方面的作用提供了经验教训。
