Wang Yu, Ge Qingqing
Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, 334 Jungong Rd, Shanghai, 200093 People's Republic of China.
College of Business, Yancheng Teachers University, 2 South Hope Avenue, Yancheng, 224051 People's Republic of China.
Environ Dev Sustain. 2023 Mar 1:1-26. doi: 10.1007/s10668-023-03071-w.
The Omicron pandemic broke out in Shanghai in March 2022, and some infected people spread to some cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. To achieve the dynamic zero-COVID target as soon as possible, Shanghai and nine cities that were heavily affected by Shanghai implemented the lockdown measures. This paper aims to quantify the impact of the lockdown on air quality and human health. A difference-in-difference (DID) model was first used to measure the impact of the lockdown on air quality in these ten cities. Based on the results of the DID model, we estimated the PM-related health and economic benefits using the concentration-response function and the value of statistical life method. Results showed that the lockdown has reduced the concentrations of PM, PM, SO, NO, and CO by 9.87 μg/m, 17.31 μg/m, 0.75 μg/m, 9.03 μg/m, and 0.07 mg/m, respectively. The number of avoided premature deaths due to PM reduction was estimated to be 35,342. The resulting economic benefits totaled 18.86 billion US dollars. We investigated the reasons for the air quality improvement in these ten cities and found the "3 + 11" policy has had a great impact on air quality. Compared with the first COVID-19 lockdown in early 2020, the effect of the lockdown in 2022 was smaller. These findings demonstrated that reductions in anthropogenic emissions would achieve substantial air quality improvement and health benefits. This paper re-emphasized continuous efforts to improve air quality are essential to protect public health.
2022年3月，奥密克戎疫情在上海爆发，部分感染者传播至长江三角洲（长三角）地区的一些城市。为尽快实现动态清零目标，上海及受上海严重影响的九个城市实施了封控措施。本文旨在量化封控对空气质量和人类健康的影响。首先使用双重差分（DID）模型来衡量封控对这十个城市空气质量的影响。基于DID模型的结果，我们使用浓度响应函数和统计生命价值法估算了与细颗粒物相关的健康和经济效益。结果显示，封控分别使细颗粒物（PM）、可吸入颗粒物（PM）、二氧化硫（SO）、氮氧化物（NO）和一氧化碳（CO）的浓度降低了9.87μg/m、17.31μg/m、0.75μg/m、9.03μg/m和0.07mg/m。因细颗粒物浓度降低而避免的过早死亡人数估计为35342人。由此产生的经济效益总计188.6亿美元。我们调查了这十个城市空气质量改善的原因，并发现“3+11”政策对空气质量产生了重大影响。与2020年初首次新冠疫情封控相比，2022年封控的效果较小。这些研究结果表明，人为排放的减少将实现空气质量的大幅改善和健康效益。本文再次强调，持续努力改善空气质量对于保护公众健康至关重要。
