Cheng Wenju, Feng Qi, Xi Haiyang, Yin Xinwei, Sindikubwabo Celestin, Habiyakare Telesphore, Chen Yuqing, Zhao Xinyue
Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin, Qilian Mountains Eco-environment Research Center in Gansu Province, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin, Qilian Mountains Eco-environment Research Center in Gansu Province, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Oct 15;344:118468. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118468. Epub 2023 Jun 27.
Recent global groundwater overpumping is threatening ecosystem stability and food security, particularly in arid basins. A solid investigation regarding the drivers of groundwater depletion is vital for groundwater restoration, hitherto, yet it remains largely unquantified. Here, a framework to quantify the contribution of natural forcing (NF) and anthropogenic perturbations (AP) to groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) variability by separating the GWSA estimated by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite into natural- and human-induced GWSA was proposed in the northwest endorheic basin (NWEB) of China. Further, a multiple linear regression model was established for GWSA change prediction. Our results showed that, during the period 2003-2020, the GWSA depleted at a rate of 0.25 cm yr in the entire NWEB. In addition, GWSA was found to decrease significantly (exceeding 1 cm yr) in the west of NWEB where there are heavily irrigated areas, and has become one of the regions with the most serious groundwater depletion in China. Whereas a significantly increasing trend (greater than 0.5 cm yr) was observed in the Qaidam basin and south part of the Tarim River basin, becoming a groundwater enrichment reservoir in NWEB. The negative contribution of AP to groundwater depletion has increased from 3% to 95% in the last decade, as determined by separating the effects of NF and AP on GWSA. The rapid expansion of the cropland area and the increase in water use due to population growth are investigated to be the main reasons for GWSA depletion, particularly in the North Tianshan Rivers, Turpan-Hami, and Tarim River basins. Therefore, we conclude that AP are dominating and accelerating groundwater depletion in the NWEB. The increase of GWSA in the Qaidam basin has been attributed to the increase in solid water melt and regional precipitation. The western route project of China's south-north water diversion and water-saving irrigation are important ways to solve the problem of groundwater depletion in NWEB. Our results emphasize that a more feasible framework capable of reliably identifying the driving factors of groundwater storage change is a necessary tool for promoting the sustainable management of groundwater resources under both NF and AP in arid endorheic basins.
近期全球范围内的地下水过度开采正威胁着生态系统稳定性和粮食安全，在干旱流域尤为如此。关于地下水消耗驱动因素的扎实调查对于地下水恢复至关重要，但迄今为止，其仍 largely未被量化。在此，提出了一个框架，通过将重力恢复与气候实验（GRACE）卫星估算的地下水储量异常（GWSA）分离为自然和人为引起的GWSA，来量化自然强迫（NF）和人为扰动（AP）对GWSA变化的贡献，该框架应用于中国西北内陆盆地（NWEB）。此外，还建立了一个用于预测GWSA变化的多元线性回归模型。我们的结果表明，在2003 - 2020年期间，整个NWEB地区的GWSA以每年0.25厘米的速度减少。此外，在NWEB西部有大量灌溉区域的地方，GWSA被发现显著减少（超过每年1厘米），并已成为中国地下水消耗最严重的地区之一。而在柴达木盆地和塔里木河流域南部则观察到显著的增加趋势（大于每年0.5厘米），成为NWEB中的一个地下水富集区域。通过分离NF和AP对GWSA的影响确定，在过去十年中，AP对地下水消耗的负贡献从3%增加到了95%。农田面积的迅速扩大和人口增长导致的用水增加被调查为GWSA减少的主要原因，特别是在北天山河流域、吐哈盆地和塔里木河流域。因此，我们得出结论，AP在NWEB中主导并加速了地下水消耗。柴达木盆地GWSA的增加归因于固态水融化和区域降水的增加。中国南水北调西线工程和节水灌溉是解决NWEB地区地下水消耗问题的重要途径。我们的结果强调，一个能够可靠识别地下水储量变化驱动因素的更可行框架是促进干旱内陆盆地在NF和AP条件下地下水可持续管理的必要工具。
