Theoretical Biology and Biophysics (T-6), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545, USA.
Nat Commun. 2023 Jul 1;14(1):3888. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-39638-4.
In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict 'zero-COVID' policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in a very large population of very low pre-existing immunity. By modeling a combination of case count and survey data, we show that Omicron spread extremely rapidly, at a rate of 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating to an epidemic doubling time of 1.6 days ([1.6, 2.0] days) after the full exit from zero-COVID on Dec. 7, 2022. Consequently, we estimate that the vast majority of the population (97% [95%, 99%], sensitivity analysis lower limit of 90%) was infected during December, with the nation-wide epidemic peaking on Dec. 23. Overall, our results highlight the extremely high transmissibility of the variant and the importance of proper design of intervention exit strategies to avoid large infection waves.
2022 年末，中国从严格的“零新冠”政策转向迅速放弃几乎所有干预措施和数据报告。这引发了人们对在极低的预先存在免疫力的庞大人群中，新冠病毒奥密克戎变异株可能迅速但未报告传播的极大关注。通过对病例数和调查数据进行建模，我们发现奥密克戎的传播速度极快，增长率为 0.42/天（95%置信区间：[0.35, 0.51]/天），这意味着 2022 年 12 月 7 日全面退出“零新冠”政策后，疫情倍增时间为 1.6 天（[1.6, 2.0]天）。因此，我们估计在 12 月期间，绝大多数人（97%[95%，99%]，敏感性分析下限为 90%）感染了新冠病毒，全国性疫情于 12 月 23 日达到峰值。总的来说，我们的结果突出了该变异株极高的传染性，以及正确设计干预退出策略以避免大规模感染浪潮的重要性。
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