Zarfin J, Van Aerde J, Perlman M, Pape K, Chipman M
Crit Care Med. 1986 Sep;14(9):768-72. doi: 10.1097/00003246-198609000-00002.
The likelihood of survival to 28 days of life was determined retrospectively for 106 infants weighing less than 801 g at birth. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that birth weight and inspired oxygen fraction made an independent contribution to the prediction of survival at 8 h of age (predictive accuracy 76%). At 16 and 24 h of age, body temperature, pH, and the presence of spontaneous breaths were the independent variables predicting survival (predictive accuracy 79%). Of 37 infants with calculated chances of survival of less than 50% at 16 h, 29 died (predictive accuracy 78%). Seven of the remaining eight infants who survived "against the odds" either died later of chronic lung disease or had severe handicapping complications by 3 months of age. These predictions are first approximations and are not intended for use in making decisions about patient management.
对106名出生时体重不足801克的婴儿进行回顾性研究，以确定其存活至28天的可能性。多元逻辑回归分析显示，出生体重和吸入氧分数对预测出生后8小时的存活率有独立贡献（预测准确率76%）。在出生后16小时和24小时，体温、pH值和自主呼吸的存在是预测存活的独立变量（预测准确率79%）。在16小时时计算出存活几率低于50%的37名婴儿中，29名死亡（预测准确率78%）。其余8名“逆势”存活的婴儿中，有7名后来死于慢性肺病，或在3个月大时出现严重的致残并发症。这些预测只是初步估算，并非用于指导患者管理决策。
