Predictive model of systemic inflammatory response syndrome after percutaneous nephrolithotomy for kidney calculi based on logistic regression.

OBJECTIVE

To establish a predictive model of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) after percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) for kidney calculi based on logistic regression.

METHODS

The data of 148 patients with unilateral kidney calculi treated in Xi'an International Medical Center Hospital from October 2019 to September 2022 were analyzed retrospectively. According to development of SIRS after PCNL, the patients were divided into one group with SIRS after operation (occurrence group, n = 19) and another group without SIRS after operation (non-occurrence group, n = 129). The clinical data of patients were collected, and risk factors for SIRS after PCNL in patients with unilateral kidney calculi were analyzed by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Gender, body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), calculi size ≥ 30 mm, renal insufficiency, and hydronephrosis were risk factors for postoperative SIRS (P < 0.05). According to multivariate logistic regression analysis, BMI, DM, hypertension, calculi size ≥ 30 mm, and hydronephrosis were independent risk factors for SIRS (P < 0.05). Based on the regression coefficient, a predictive model was established. The occurrence group had a higher risk score than the non-occurrence group (P < 0.05). According to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve-based analysis, the area under the curve of risk score for predicting SIRS in patients was 0.898.

CONCLUSION

Patients with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m, DM, hypertension, calculi ≥ 30 mm, and/or hydronephrosis are more likely to suffer SIRS after PCNL. The risk score has high clinical value in the prediction of SIRS.