van der Laan Esther, Nunes João Pedro, Dias Luís Filipe, Carvalho Sílvia, Mendonça Dos Santos Franciane
Soil Physics and Land Management group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Soil Physics and Land Management group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, 6708 PB Wageningen, the Netherlands; cE3c - aCenter for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes & CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Edifício C2, 5° Piso, Sala 2.5.46 Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Nov 1;897:165438. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165438. Epub 2023 Jul 10.
In Mediterranean catchments, such as the Sorraia catchment in Portugal, it is expected that climate change will increase drought stress and the deterioration of water quality in reservoirs. Sustainable land management (SLM) practices are seen as an adaption measure for those problems, but the effectiveness on improving climate change impacted water availability and quality on catchment scale is still poorly understood. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of SLM practices in adapting the impacts of climate change on water availability and quality of the Montargil and Maranhão reservoirs in the Sorraia catchment. A well-calibrated Soil Water Assessment Tool model is used to simulate four scenarios (2041-2071 and 2071-2100; representative climate pathways 4.5 and 8.5), to investigate the effects of climate change on total phosphorus load (TP) in streams, reservoir volume, irrigation use and water exploitation index (WEI). Results showed that WEI will not exceed any water stress level while reservoir water quality will worsen. In particular since the TP load in streams flowing into the reservoirs increases and the volume decreases, it is likely that the existing P limitation for eutrophication will be counteracted. Nevertheless, tested SLM practices were able to decrease the TP load in those streams and increase the reservoir volume under future climates. Overall, this study shows that the SLM practices are effective in adapting to the climate change effects regarding reservoir water quality, without worsening the water availability; thus, it is a promising tool that should be investigated further for application by e.g. local land-users and decision makers.
在地中海流域，如葡萄牙的索拉亚流域，预计气候变化将加剧干旱压力，导致水库水质恶化。可持续土地管理（SLM）措施被视为应对这些问题的一种适应措施，但在流域尺度上，其对改善受气候变化影响的水资源可用性和水质的有效性仍知之甚少。因此，本研究旨在评估可持续土地管理措施在适应气候变化对索拉亚流域蒙塔尔吉尔和马拉尼昂水库的水资源可用性和水质影响方面的有效性。使用经过良好校准的土壤水评估工具模型来模拟四种情景（2041 - 2071年和2071 - 2100年；代表性气候路径4.5和8.5），以研究气候变化对溪流中总磷负荷（TP）、水库蓄水量、灌溉用水和水资源开发指数（WEI）的影响。结果表明，水资源开发指数不会超过任何水压力水平，而水库水质将恶化。特别是，由于流入水库的溪流中的总磷负荷增加且蓄水量减少，现有的富营养化磷限制可能会被抵消。然而，经过测试的可持续土地管理措施能够在未来气候条件下减少这些溪流中的总磷负荷并增加水库蓄水量。总体而言，本研究表明，可持续土地管理措施在适应气候变化对水库水质的影响方面是有效的，且不会使水资源可用性恶化；因此，它是一个很有前景的工具，应由例如当地土地使用者和决策者等进一步研究其应用。
