A tale of two cities: Heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 quarantine on domestic violence in Brazil.

Domestic violence calls to helplines surged worldwide immediately after COVID-19 lockdowns, but crime reporting, assaults, or homicides did not consistently rise. Using Brazilian data from health services and helplines, we analyze the impact of COVID-19 quarantine on domestic violence calls and assaults (health reports and hospitalizations). We use a difference-in-difference model to compare the evolution of domestic violence against women in municipalities that enacted the quarantine in March 2020 versus those that never did. Then, we estimate the difference in the quarantine effect between municipalities with and without protective services for women. Domestic violence calls increased by 11.8% in the first quarter of the quarantine, while health reports reduced by 12.6% a quarter later. These effects came from municipalities with protective services for women, where female hospitalizations due to assault decreased as well. In contrast, municipalities without such services saw a decrease in domestic violence calls and an increase in health reports in the first quarter. The supply of protective services for women could be a factor that explains why COVID-19-induced quarantine effects on domestic violence varied across populations. Our results suggest that when domestic violence calls increased, protective services actions prevented domestic violence from escalating into more severe cases, such as assaults.