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研究交通运输系统和经济增长对碳排放的影响:应用 GMM 系统对 33 个欧洲国家进行研究。

Investigating the impact of transportation system and economic growth on carbon emissions: Application of GMM System for 33 european countries.

机构信息

Faculty of Economic sciences and management, University of Sousse, BP 4023, Erriadh City, Tunisia.

Higher Institute of Transport and Logistics,LAMIDED Laboratory, University of Sousse, BP 4023, Erriadh City, Tunisia.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Aug;30(39):90656-90674. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-28595-6. Epub 2023 Jul 18.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-023-28595-6
PMID:37462875
Abstract

In Europe, there has been a significant shift in the movement of people and things. Nonetheless, despite the fact that transportation is an important component of the supply chain, its environmental consequences pose a severe threat to the ecosystem as a whole. As a result, we intend to explore the relationship between transportation, economy, and CO2 emissions. We used the Static method with Pooled OLS, then tested the Granger causality to validate the use of dynamic approach via the GMM system. The major findings revealed that GDP and trade openness had a considerable impact on CO2 emissions. Although the three modes of transportation have different effects on CO2 emissions, road density has a positive and considerable impact on CO2 emissions. The railway network is inversely connected to CO2 emissions. While the quantity of flight passengers has no substantial effect on emissions. In terms of the impulse response function, there is an initial shock in period 2 for the response of air passengers carried to CO2 emissions, followed by convergence back to zero in period 6, whereas road density has a slight decrease in period 2 with a post shock peak in period 4, followed by convergence back to zero in period 5. The variance decomposition results reveal a little increase until the fifth period for road density, air passengers, and trade openness with coefficients equal to 0.0893, 0.636, and 1.573, respectively, after which these three variables offer decreasing coefficients.

摘要

在欧洲,人员和货物的流动发生了重大转变。尽管交通运输是供应链的重要组成部分,但它对整个生态系统造成的环境后果构成了严重威胁。因此,我们打算探讨交通运输、经济和二氧化碳排放之间的关系。我们使用静态方法和 Pooled OLS,然后通过 GMM 系统检验了格兰杰因果关系,以验证动态方法的使用。主要发现表明,GDP 和贸易开放度对二氧化碳排放有相当大的影响。尽管三种交通方式对二氧化碳排放的影响不同,但道路密度对二氧化碳排放有正向且相当大的影响。铁路网与二氧化碳排放呈负相关。而航班旅客数量对排放没有实质性影响。就脉冲响应函数而言,航空旅客运输对二氧化碳排放的响应在第 2 期有一个初始冲击,然后在第 6 期收敛回零,而道路密度在第 2 期略有下降,第 4 期出现冲击高峰,然后在第 5 期收敛回零。方差分解结果显示,道路密度、航空旅客和贸易开放度的系数分别为 0.0893、0.636 和 1.573,在第 5 期之前略有增加,之后这三个变量的系数逐渐减小。

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