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芯片产业链全球贸易网络分析:美中科技战有影响吗?

Analysis of the global trade network of the chip industry chain: Does the U.S.-China tech war matter?

作者信息

Zhang Yongli, Zhu Xianduo

机构信息

College of Economics and Management, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin, 300222, China.

School of Management, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang, 050031, Hebei Province, China.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2023 Jun 9;9(6):e17092. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17092. eCollection 2023 Jun.

Abstract

Chip is the "brain" of the information industry and modern manufacturing industry, and supply chain security is the key to the sustainable development of the industrial chain. From the perspective of the industrial chain, this paper selected semiconductor silicon wafers and equipment, integrated circuits, electronic computers, and components as representative commodities in the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the chip industry chain, constructed global trade networks of the chip industry chain, and analyzed the characteristics of the networks and nodes in 2020 and the changes in China's status before and after the China-U.S. tech war. The study results indicate that the network scale and network density of the global trade network of downstream electronic computers and components are higher than those of midstream integrated circuits; the global trade network of upstream semiconductor wafers and equipment has the smallest network scale and network density, and the trade networks of all links show obvious small-world characteristics; The United States ranks first in betweenness centrality of all links, with the strongest control ability and the largest number of trading partners in all links; China has higher betweenness centrality and more trading partners in the global trade network of the two upstream commodities than that of the midstream commodities, and the lowest betweenness centrality in the global trade network of the downstream commodities; The core countries of the chip industry chain are concentrated in southeast Asia, east Asia, central and western Europe, and the United States. China's trade status of semiconductor silicon wafers and integrated circuits has declined significantly during the China-U.S. tech war. The nodes in the chip trade network have good robustness in the face of random attacks and show vulnerability under target attacks. Additionally, the trade network's robustness in the chip industry chain is the strongest for downstream commodities, ranks second for midstream commodities, and is the weakest for upstream commodities. These findings can provide references for ensuring chip supply chain security in China and other trade-participating countries.

摘要

芯片是信息产业和现代制造业的“大脑”,供应链安全是产业链可持续发展的关键。从产业链角度出发,本文选取半导体硅片及设备、集成电路、电子计算机和零部件作为芯片产业链上游、中游和下游的代表性商品,构建芯片产业链全球贸易网络,并分析2020年网络及节点特征以及中美科技战前后中国地位的变化。研究结果表明,下游电子计算机及零部件全球贸易网络的网络规模和网络密度高于中游集成电路;上游半导体硅片及设备全球贸易网络的网络规模和网络密度最小,各环节贸易网络均呈现明显的小世界特征;美国在各环节的中间中心性排名第一,控制能力最强,各环节贸易伙伴数量最多;中国在上游两种商品的全球贸易网络中的中间中心性高于中游商品,下游商品全球贸易网络中的中间中心性最低;芯片产业链核心国家集中在东南亚、东亚、中欧和西欧以及美国。中美科技战期间,中国半导体硅片和集成电路的贸易地位显著下降。芯片贸易网络中的节点在面对随机攻击时具有良好的鲁棒性,在目标攻击下表现出脆弱性。此外,芯片产业链贸易网络的鲁棒性下游商品最强,中游商品次之,上游商品最弱。这些研究结果可为保障中国及其他贸易参与国芯片供应链安全提供参考。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/162b/10361236/9922c6b73364/gr1.jpg

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