ICFRE - Institute of Forest Productivity, Ranchi, Jharkhand, 835303, India.
Environ Monit Assess. 2023 Jul 28;195(8):1005. doi: 10.1007/s10661-023-11611-0.
One of the greatest challenges to ecosystems is the rapidity of climate change, and their ability to adjust swiftly will be constrained. Climate change will disrupt the ecological balances, causing species to track suitable habitats for survival. Consequently, understanding the species' response to climate change is crucial for its conservation and management, and for enhancing biodiversity through effective management. This research intends to examine the response of the vulnerable Buchanania cochinchinensis species to climate change. We modeled the potential suitable habitats of B. cochinchinensis for the present and future climatic scenario proxies based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), i.e. SSP126, 245, 370 and 585. Maxent was used to simulate the potential habitats of B. cochinchinensis. The study found that 28,313 km (10.7% of the study area) was a potentially suitable habitat of B. cochinchinensis for the current scenario. The majority of the suitable habitat area ~25,169 km occurred in the central and southern parts of the study area. The future projection shows that the suitable habitat to largely increase in the range of 10.5-20% across all the SSPs, with a maximum gain of ~20% for SSP 126. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio_08) was the most influential contributing variable in limiting the distribution of B. cochinchinensis. The majority of the suitable habitat area occurred in the vegetation landscape. The study shows a southward shifting of B. cochinchinensis habitat by 2050. The phytosociological analysis determined B. cochinchinensis as Shorea robusta's primary associate. Our research provides significant insight into the prospective distribution scenario of B. cochinchinensis habitat and its response to diverse socioeconomic scenarios, and offers a solid foundation for management of this extremely important species.
生态系统面临的最大挑战之一是气候变化的迅速性，它们迅速调整的能力将受到限制。气候变化将破坏生态平衡，导致物种追踪适合生存的栖息地。因此，了解物种对气候变化的反应对于保护和管理物种以及通过有效管理提高生物多样性至关重要。本研究旨在研究脆弱的蒲葵物种对气候变化的反应。我们根据共享社会经济路径 (SSP)，即 SSP126、245、370 和 585，为 B. cochinchinensis 目前和未来的气候情景代理模型潜在适宜栖息地。Maxent 用于模拟 B. cochinchinensis 的潜在栖息地。研究发现，目前情景下，约 28313 公里（研究区域的 10.7%）是 B. cochinchinensis 的潜在适宜栖息地。大部分适宜栖息地约 25169 公里位于研究区域的中部和南部。未来预测显示，所有 SSP 下的适宜栖息地范围将大幅增加 10.5-20%，其中 SSP 126 的最大增益约为 20%。最湿润季度（Bio_08）的平均温度是限制 B. cochinchinensis 分布的最具影响力的变量。大部分适宜栖息地位于植被景观中。研究表明，到 2050 年，蒲葵的栖息地将向南转移。植物社会学分析确定 B. cochinchinensis 是娑罗双树的主要伴生种。我们的研究提供了对 B. cochinchinensis 栖息地未来分布情景及其对不同社会经济情景的反应的重要见解，并为管理这一极其重要的物种提供了坚实的基础。
