Abelson Samantha, Penso Johnathon, Alsuliman Bader, Babler Kristina, Sharkey Mark, Stevenson Mario, Grills George, Mason Christopher E, Solo-Gabriele Helena, Kumar Naresh
Department of Public Health, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida.
Department of Chemical, Environmental, and Materials Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida.
medRxiv. 2023 Jul 12:2023.07.12.23292570. doi: 10.1101/2023.07.12.23292570.
Wastewater monitoring is increasingly used for community surveillance of infectious diseases, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic as the genomic footprints of pathogens shed by infected individuals can be traced in the environment. However, detection and concentration of pathogens in the environmental samples and their efficacy in predicting infectious diseases can be influenced by meteorological conditions and quality of samples.
This research examines whether meteorological conditions and sample pH affect SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater samples, and whether the association of SARS-CoV-2 with COVID-19 cases and mortality improves when adjusted for meteorological conditions and sample pH value in Miami-Dade County, FL.
Daily wastewater samples were collected from Miami-Dade Wastewater Treatment Plant in Key Biscayne, Florida from August 2021 to August 2022. The samples were analyzed for pH and spiked with OC43. RNA was extracted from the concentrated wastewater sample and SARS-CoV-2 was quantified using qPCR. COVID-19 and mortality data were acquired from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and meteorological data from the National Climatic Data Center. COVID-19 case and mortality rates were modelled with respect to time-lagged wastewater SARS-CoV-2 adjusting for meteorological conditions, and sample pH value and OC43 recovery.
Temperature, dew point, pH values and OC43 recovery showed significant associations with wastewater SARS-CoV-2. Time-lagged wastewater SARS-CoV-2 showed significant associations with COVID-19 case and mortality incidence rates. This association improved when wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels were adjusted for (or instrumented on) meteorological conditions, OC43 recovery, and sample pH. A 0.47% change in COVID-19 case incidence rate was associated with 1% change in wastewater SARS-CoV-2 (β ~ 0.47; 95% CI = 0.29 - 0.64; p < 0.001). A 0.12 % change in COVID-19 mortality rate was associated with 1 % change in SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater 44 days prior. A 0.07% decline in COVID-19 mortality rate was associated with a unit increase in ambient temperature 28 days prior.
Time lagged wastewater SARS-CoV-2 (and its adjustment for sample pH and RNA recovery) and meteorological conditions can be used for the surveillance of COVID-19 case and mortality. These findings can be extrapolated to improve the surveillance of other infectious diseases by proactive measurements of infectious agent(s) in the wastewater samples, adjusting for meteorological conditions and sample pH value.
废水监测越来越多地用于传染病的社区监测，尤其是在新冠疫情之后，因为受感染个体排出的病原体的基因组足迹可以在环境中被追踪到。然而，环境样本中病原体的检测和浓缩及其在预测传染病方面的功效可能会受到气象条件和样本质量的影响。
本研究调查气象条件和样本pH值是否会影响废水样本中新冠病毒的浓度，以及在佛罗里达州迈阿密-戴德县，对气象条件和样本pH值进行调整后，新冠病毒与新冠病例及死亡率之间的关联是否会得到改善。
2021年8月至2022年8月，每天从佛罗里达州比斯坎湾的迈阿密-戴德废水处理厂采集废水样本。分析样本的pH值，并加入OC43。从浓缩后的废水样本中提取RNA，使用定量聚合酶链反应（qPCR）对新冠病毒进行定量。新冠病例和死亡率数据来自疾病控制与预防中心（CDC），气象数据来自国家气候数据中心。针对滞后时间的废水新冠病毒，在考虑气象条件、样本pH值和OC43回收率的情况下，对新冠病例和死亡率进行建模。
温度、露点、pH值和OC43回收率与废水中的新冠病毒存在显著关联。滞后时间的废水新冠病毒与新冠病例及死亡率发病率存在显著关联。当针对气象条件、OC43回收率和样本pH值对废水新冠病毒水平进行调整（或校正）时，这种关联得到了改善。新冠病例发病率0.47%的变化与废水新冠病毒1%的变化相关（β约为0.47；95%置信区间=0.29 - 0.64；p<0.001）。新冠死亡率0.12%的变化与44天前废水中新冠病毒1%的变化相关。新冠死亡率0.07%的下降与28天前环境温度每升高一个单位相关。
滞后时间的废水新冠病毒（及其对样本pH值和RNA回收率的调整）和气象条件可用于监测新冠病例和死亡率。这些发现可以外推，通过对废水样本中的传染源进行主动测量，并对气象条件和样本pH值进行调整，来改进对其他传染病的监测。
