Defining Need Amid Exponential Change: Conceptual Challenges in Workforce Planning for Clinical Genetic Services.

Rapid growth in the volume of referrals to clinical genetics services in many countries during the past 15 years makes workforce planning a critical policy tool in ensuring that the capacity of the clinical genetics workforce is large enough to meet current and future needs. This article explores the distinctive challenges of workforce planning in clinical genetics and provides recommendations for addressing these challenges using a needs-based planning approach. Specifically, at least 3 features complicate efforts to estimate the need for clinical genetic services: the difficulty in linking many clinical genetic services to concrete health outcomes; the rapidly changing nature of genetic medicine, which creates intrinsic uncertainty about the appropriate level of service; and the heightened relevance of patient preferences in this context. Our recommendations call for needs-based planning studies to include an explicit definition of necessary care, to be flexible in considering nonhealth benefits, to err on the side of including services currently funded by health systems even when evidence about outcomes is limited, and to use scenario analysis and expert input to explore the impact of uncertainty about patients' preferences and future technologies on estimates of workforce requirements.