Faculty of International Business Management, Beppu University, Beppu, Oita, Japan.
PLoS One. 2023 Aug 1;18(8):e0289040. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0289040. eCollection 2023.
This article aims to analyze the evolution of trading networks, emphasizing aspects of centrality and reciprocity among the major exporting nations, specifically, the U.S., China, India, Japan, and South Korea, from 1992 to 2020. The study problem we address is how these network structures have shifted over time, and what the implications of these changes are for international economic relations and policy. We further consider the impact of major global events on these trade networks and how they have shaped the evolution of these networks. We utilized three distinct methods. First, we examined time-series trade data during the study period and quantified network reciprocity through the sum of squared trade imbalances across different product categories. Second, we visualized these trade networks using arrows, with their sizes being proportional to the trade value between each pair of countries; significant trade relationships were indicated by arrows with a standard deviation value of 55 or above. Finally, we introduced a new cluster analysis methodology for studying the evolution of network structures over time. This method utilized an 80-dimensional vector representation of the annual networks, divided into four categories, and the resulting structures were visualized as dendrograms using R software. The network structure has become more reciprocal for most product categories, and the center of the network has shifted from the U.S. to China for all product categories, except for consumer goods and raw materials. The study also highlights the significant impact of global events and crises such as 9/11 attacks on the international trade network structure. Our findings inform several policy recommendations. These include encouraging balanced trade for economic stability and improved international relations, realigning trade focus in response to the shift in trade network center, and developing resilience policies that account for the substantial impact of global events on trade networks.
本文旨在分析贸易网络的演变，重点分析 1992 年至 2020 年间美国、中国、印度、日本和韩国这五个主要出口国之间的中心性和互惠性方面。我们要解决的研究问题是这些网络结构随时间的推移是如何变化的，以及这些变化对国际经济关系和政策意味着什么。我们进一步考虑了重大全球事件对这些贸易网络的影响以及它们如何塑造这些网络的演变。我们使用了三种不同的方法。首先，我们检查了研究期间的时间序列贸易数据，并通过对不同产品类别之间的贸易不平衡进行平方和来量化网络互惠性。其次，我们使用箭头可视化这些贸易网络，箭头的大小与每对国家之间的贸易价值成正比；具有 55 或以上标准差值的箭头表示存在显著的贸易关系。最后，我们引入了一种新的聚类分析方法来研究网络结构随时间的演变。该方法使用了一个 80 维的年度网络向量表示，分为四类，使用 R 软件将得到的结构可视化作为树状图。对于大多数产品类别，网络结构变得更加互惠，除了消费品和原材料，网络中心已从美国转移到中国。该研究还强调了全球事件和危机（如 9/11 袭击）对国际贸易网络结构的重大影响。我们的研究结果为以下几个政策建议提供了信息。这些建议包括鼓励平衡贸易以实现经济稳定和改善国际关系，根据贸易网络中心的转移调整贸易重点，以及制定考虑到全球事件对贸易网络的重大影响的弹性政策。
