School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, China.
Global Health. 2023 Aug 4;19(1):53. doi: 10.1186/s12992-023-00954-5.
The geographic information science-based interactive map provided good prospects for the public health to study disease prevalence. The purpose of this study is to understand global spatial-temporal trends of childhood overweight and obesity and underlying causes help formulating intervention strategies.
This multiple cross-sectional study included data on childhood overweight and obesity prevalence, gross national income per capita, and urbanization rate for 191 countries from 1975-2016. Autoregressive integrated moving average model, standard deviational ellipse model and mixed-effects models were used to explore spatial-temporal trends of childhood overweight and obesity and associations with gross national income per capita and urbanization rate.
Globally, childhood overweight and obesity rate would reach 30.0% in 2030 (boys: 34.2%, girls: 27.4%). By 2030, it would reach 58.3% in middle- and high-income countries and 68.1% in Western Pacific region. Spatial-temporal trendline for childhood overweight and obesity in 1975-2030 exhibited a "C" shape, migrating from 1975 (15.6E, 24.6N) to 2005 (10.6E, 21.7N), then to 2030 (14.8E, 17.4N). The trendline for urbanization rate was also an irregular "C", and the turning point appeared five years earlier than childhood overweight and obesity.
Globally, childhood overweight and obesity prevalence will continue to increase. Its weight mean center migrated from western countries to Asia and Africa following economic development.
基于地理信息科学的交互式地图为公共卫生研究疾病流行提供了良好的前景。本研究旨在了解儿童超重和肥胖的全球时空趋势及其根本原因，以帮助制定干预策略。
本多项横断面研究纳入了 1975 年至 2016 年期间 191 个国家的儿童超重和肥胖流行率、人均国民总收入和城市化率数据。采用自回归综合移动平均模型、标准差椭圆模型和混合效应模型来探索儿童超重和肥胖的时空趋势及其与人均国民总收入和城市化率的关系。
全球范围内，儿童超重和肥胖率预计将在 2030 年达到 30.0%（男孩：34.2%，女孩：27.4%）。到 2030 年，中高收入国家和西太平洋地区的这一比例将分别达到 58.3%和 68.1%。1975 年至 2030 年儿童超重和肥胖的时空趋势线呈“C”形，从 1975 年（15.6E，24.6N）迁移到 2005 年（10.6E，21.7N），再到 2030 年（14.8E，17.4N）。城市化率的趋势线也是一条不规则的“C”形，转折点比儿童超重和肥胖早出现五年。
全球范围内，儿童超重和肥胖的流行率将继续上升。随着经济的发展，其体重平均值中心从西方国家迁移到了亚洲和非洲。
