马德里城市极端温度归因死亡的探索性分析。
Exploratory analysis of local extreme-temperature attributable mortality in an urban city of Madrid.
机构信息
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain.
Unidad de Referencia en Cambio Climático, Salud y Medio Ambiente Urbano, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain.
出版信息
Soc Sci Med. 2023 Sep;333:116115. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.116115. Epub 2023 Aug 2.
AIM
to assess the Heat (HW) and Cold Waves (CW) risks on health in the urban municipality of Getafe.
METHODOLOGY
time series analysis between 01/01/1999-31/10/2013.
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
daily mortality due to natural causes - (ICD-10): A99-R99-.
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
the maximum (T) and minimum (T) daily temperature. The mortality-temperature relationship was analysed to determine the thresholds of HW (Threshold) and CW (Threshold). Using Poisson GLM (link = log), the Relative Risk (RR), Attributable Risk (AR) and Attributable Mortality (AM) were determined for each degree of the T exceeding the Threshold (T) and for each degree of T under the Threshold (T). Finally, socioeconomic variables were analysed descriptively.
RESULTS
Threshold was 36 °C while Threshold was 0 °C. The RRs associated with T, i.e. 1.08 (1.03 1.14), are akin to those obtained for T i.e. 1.05 (1.03 1.08). There were 202 HW and 430 CW episodes. The AM to HW totalled 61 (25, 96) deaths, while that attributable to CW reached 146 (82,211) deaths. The vulnerability in Getafe seems to be lower than in surrounding similar urban and rural cities.
CONCLUSIONS
The singular urban development of the municipality may have granted it an advantage over surrounding municipalities regarding temperature extremes.
目的
评估马德里自治区戈塔菲（Getafe）市的热（HW）和冷浪（CW）对健康的风险。
方法
1999 年 1 月 1 日至 2013 年 10 月 31 日的时间序列分析。
因变量
自然原因导致的每日死亡率（ICD-10）：A99-R99-。
自变量
每日最高（T）和最低（T）温度。分析死亡率与温度的关系，以确定热波（阈值）和冷浪（阈值）的阈值。使用泊松广义线性模型（链接=log），确定每个超过阈值（T）的 T 度的相对风险（RR）、归因风险（AR）和归因死亡率（AM），以及每个低于阈值（T）的 T 度的 RR、AR 和 AM。最后，对社会经济变量进行描述性分析。
结果
阈值为 36°C，阈值为 0°C。与 T 相关的 RR，即 1.08（1.03 1.14），类似于与 T 相关的 RR，即 1.05（1.03 1.08）。共有 202 次热波和 430 次冷浪事件。HW 的归因死亡率总计为 61（25，96）例，而 CW 的归因死亡率则达到 146（82，211）例。戈塔菲的脆弱性似乎低于周围类似的城市和农村城市。
结论
该直辖市独特的城市发展可能使其在应对极端温度方面优于周围的直辖市。
Zotero 插件