GRECO, Institute of Aquatic Ecology, University of Girona, 17003, Girona, Spain.
Departamento de Sistemas Físicos, Químicos y Naturales, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Ctra. de Utrera, km. 1, 41013, Seville, Spain.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Nov 1;345:118696. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118696. Epub 2023 Aug 5.
Invasive alien species have widespread impacts on native biodiversity and ecosystem services. Since the number of introductions worldwide is continuously rising, it is essential to prevent the entry, establishment and spread of new alien species through a systematic examination of future potential threats. Applying a three-step horizon scanning consensus method, we evaluated non-established alien species that could potentially arrive, establish and cause major ecological impact in Spain within the next 10 years. Overall, we identified 47 species with a very high risk (e.g. Oreochromis niloticus, Popillia japonica, Hemidactylus frenatus, Crassula helmsii or Halophila stipulacea), 61 with high risk, 93 with moderate risk, and 732 species with low risk. Many of the species categorized as very high or high risk to Spanish biodiversity are either already present in Europe and neighbouring countries or have a long invasive history elsewhere. This study provides an updated list of potential invasive alien species useful for prioritizing efforts and resources against their introduction. Compared to previous horizon scanning exercises in Spain, the current study screens potential invaders from a wider range of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine organisms, and can serve as a basis for more comprehensive risk analyses to improve management and increase the efficiency of the early warning and rapid response framework for invasive alien species. We also stress the usefulness of measuring agreement and consistency as two different properties of the reliability of expert scores, in order to more easily elaborate consensus ranked lists of potential invasive alien species.
入侵的外来物种对本地生物多样性和生态系统服务有着广泛的影响。由于全球的引种数量持续增加，因此通过系统地评估未来潜在的威胁，防止新的外来物种的传入、建立和传播是至关重要的。我们应用了一个三步式的前瞻性扫描共识方法，评估了未来 10 年内可能到达、建立并对西班牙造成重大生态影响的非建立外来物种。总体而言，我们确定了 47 种具有极高风险的物种（例如奥利亚罗非鱼、日本虎甲虫、蛤蚧、赫姆斯叶仙人掌或匙叶海桑），61 种高风险物种，93 种中风险物种，732 种低风险物种。许多被归类为对西班牙生物多样性具有高风险或极高风险的物种，要么已经存在于欧洲及其邻国，要么在其他地方有着悠久的入侵历史。本研究提供了一份潜在入侵外来物种的更新清单，有助于优先考虑防范这些物种传入的努力和资源。与西班牙之前的前瞻性扫描研究相比，本研究从更广泛的陆生、淡水和海洋生物中筛选潜在的入侵物种，可作为更全面的风险分析的基础，以改善管理并提高入侵外来物种的早期预警和快速反应框架的效率。我们还强调了衡量一致性和一致性作为专家评分可靠性的两个不同属性的有用性，以便更轻松地制定潜在入侵外来物种的共识排名清单。
