Optimal allocation for land in an arid inland basin in northwest China: framework and application based on CLUE-S and MCR models.

Reasonable planning of the limited land resources can promote the coordinated development of social economic and ecological protection. It is very important to optimize the rational distribution of land resources in the arid inland river basin because of the scarce land. In this paper, the GIS technologies of spatial analysis, conversion of land use, and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model were used to optimize the land allocation. The ecological security pattern (ESP) was constructed through using MCR model, which included ecological source and resistance surface. The dynamics of land use and spatial optimizing allocation of Shiyang River Basin in 2025 and 2030 was simulated under three different optimization scenarios including farmland protection scenario (FPS), free development scenario (FDS), and ecological security pattern scenario (ESPS). It was found that under ESPS, farmland was reduced, but woodland, grassland, and water body were increased significantly. Under FPS, land for construction was controlled effectively, a large part of homestead was converted into farmland, and the potential of unused land was developed vigorously. Furthermore, the current FDS and macro policy guidance should be comprehensively considered. The ESPS was more suitable for the scientific development of Shiyang River Basin on a long view. The combination of CLUE-S and MCR can effectively improve the optimization methods under ecological process and ecological resistance of landscape elements.