Nepomuceno Andrew, Bayer Hilary, Ioannidis John P A
Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS) (AN, HB, JPAI) and Departments of Epidemiology and Population Health (AN, JPAI) and of Medicine (JPAI), Stanford University, Stanford, 94305-6104, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2023 Aug 9;10(8):230549. doi: 10.1098/rsos.230549. eCollection 2023 Aug.
To characterize the impact of major research awards on recipients' subsequent work, we studied Nobel Prize winners in Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, and Physics and MacArthur Fellows working in scientific fields. Using a case-crossover design, we compared scientists' citations, publications and citations-per-publication from work published in a 3-year pre-award period to their work published in a 3-year post-award period. Nobel Laureates and MacArthur Fellows received fewer citations for post- than for pre-award work. This was driven mostly by Nobel Laureates. Median decrease was 80.5 citations among Nobel Laureates ( = 0.004) and 2 among MacArthur Fellows ( = 0.857). Mid-career (42-57 years) and senior (greater than 57 years) researchers tended to earn fewer citations for post-award work. Early career researchers (less than 42 years, typically MacArthur Fellows) tended to earn more, but the difference was non-significant. MacArthur Fellows ( = 0.001) but not Nobel Laureates ( = 0.180) had significantly more post-award publications. Both populations had significantly fewer post-award citations per paper ( = 0.043 for Nobel Laureates, 0.005 for MacArthur Fellows, and 0.0004 for combined population). If major research awards indeed fail to increase (and even decrease) recipients' impact, one may need to reassess the purposes, criteria, and impacts of awards to improve the scientific enterprise.
为了描述重大研究奖项对获奖者后续工作的影响，我们研究了化学、生理学或医学以及物理学领域的诺贝尔奖获得者和从事科学领域工作的麦克阿瑟奖获得者。我们采用病例交叉设计，比较了科学家在获奖前3年发表的作品与获奖后3年发表的作品的被引次数、发表论文数量以及每篇论文的被引次数。诺贝尔奖获得者和麦克阿瑟奖获得者获奖后作品的被引次数低于获奖前。这主要是由诺贝尔奖获得者推动的。诺贝尔奖获得者的中位数减少了80.5次被引（P = 0.004），麦克阿瑟奖获得者减少了2次被引（P = 0.857）。职业生涯中期（42 - 57岁）和资深（大于57岁）的研究人员获奖后作品的被引次数往往较少。早期职业生涯的研究人员（小于42岁，通常是麦克阿瑟奖获得者）的被引次数往往较多，但差异不显著。麦克阿瑟奖获得者（P = 0.001）获奖后的发表论文数量显著增加，而诺贝尔奖获得者（P = 0.180）则不然。两组人群获奖后每篇论文的被引次数均显著减少（诺贝尔奖获得者为P = 0.043，麦克阿瑟奖获得者为P = 0.005，合并人群为P = 0.0004）。如果重大研究奖项确实未能增加（甚至减少）获奖者的影响力，那么可能需要重新评估奖项的目的、标准和影响，以改善科学事业。
