Sheikh Zaineb Danish, Branston J Robert, van der Zee Kirsten, Gilmore Anna B
Department of Health, University of Bath, Bath, UK.
School of Management, University of Bath, Bath, UK
Tob Control. 2025 Jan 2;34(1):48-58. doi: 10.1136/tc-2023-058054.
Tobacco taxation is only effective in reducing consumption when it is translated into higher prices. This study aims to investigate to what extent the tobacco industry (TI) passes tax increases over to consumers by increasing the retail price of cigarettes in 12 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries.
African Cigarette Prices Project and WHO's Global Tobacco Epidemic Reports data were used to calculate the rate of tax pass-through by decomposing the retail price of cigarettes into tax and net prices between 2016 and 2020. Percentage change in net price was used to identify industry pricing behaviour, in both packs and single-stick sales. TI pricing strategies were examined by country, producer type, producers, and cigarette price segment.
There were mixed TI strategies, with taxes primarily overshifted (Botswana, Madagascar, Tanzania, Zimbabwe), undershifted (Ethiopia, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia) or a mix of both (Malawi, Nigeria). The detail varied between countries, over time, and between the different brands/segments offered. Patterns for single-stick sales were broadly similar to that of packs but with some differences observed in particular countries/years. Pricing strategies for the various transnational tobacco companies and domestic producers were similar but the changes in net price for the latter were larger. The country tax level/type and the size of tax change did not seem to be an obvious influence.
This paper provides an overview of TI pricing strategies in response to tax increases in SSA. Governments must monitor how the TI responds to tax changes to ensure that tax increases are effective in impacting price.
烟草税只有转化为更高的价格时，才会在减少消费方面有效。本研究旨在调查烟草行业（TI）在撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）12个国家通过提高香烟零售价格将税收增加转嫁给消费者的程度。
利用非洲香烟价格项目和世卫组织全球烟草流行报告的数据，通过在2016年至2020年期间将香烟零售价格分解为税收和净价格来计算税收转嫁率。净价格的百分比变化用于确定行业定价行为，包括整包销售和单支销售。通过国家、生产商类型、生产商和香烟价格段来研究烟草行业的定价策略。
烟草行业的策略各不相同，税收主要过度转嫁（博茨瓦纳、马达加斯加、坦桑尼亚、津巴布韦）、转嫁不足（埃塞俄比亚、莱索托、莫桑比克、纳米比亚、南非、赞比亚）或两者兼有（马拉维、尼日利亚）。细节因国家、时间以及所提供的不同品牌/价格段而异。单支销售的模式与整包销售大致相似，但在特定国家/年份观察到一些差异。各跨国烟草公司和国内生产商的定价策略相似，但后者的净价格变化更大。国家税收水平/类型和税收变化幅度似乎不是明显的影响因素。
本文概述了撒哈拉以南非洲地区烟草行业针对税收增加的定价策略。各国政府必须监测烟草行业对税收变化的反应，以确保税收增加能有效影响价格。
