Department of Statistics, Universitas Islam Bandung, Bandung, 40116, Indonesia.
Department of Economic Development, Universitas Islam Bandung, Bandung, 40116, Indonesia.
F1000Res. 2023 Apr 25;11:363. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.110341.2. eCollection 2022.
Previous studies have shown that the confirmed cases drive investor sentiment, reflecting the stock's return. Based on this, the vaccination growth is also expected to drive the investor's sentiment, which can be reflected in the return of the stock market in ASEAN. Therefore, this study explores the vaccination impact on stock returns in ASEAN countries. This study contributes to the gap of taking the COVID-19 vaccination impact to the stock return into account by using the panel regression model with HC and Driscoll and Kraay robust covariance matrix estimator, which addresses the cross-dependency and heterogeneity problems. This study is one of the early studies of the topic, especially in ASEAN. The panel regression model with HC and Driscoll and Kraay robust covariance matrix estimator uses three variables: the daily stocks return, vaccine growth, and cases growth. It is a balanced panel data that includes six countries and 117 daily series data, making 702 observations used in the study. The results show conflicting results where daily vaccination growth negatively affects the stock return. This problem can arise for several reasons, such as the uncertainty in the financial market and cross-dependency and heterogeneity detected in the model. We can see that the investors still have a negative sentiment because COVID-19 has resulted in uncertainty on the financial market in ASEAN. This gives us practical implications that the ASEAN country members' government needs to push vaccination policy more aggressively.
先前的研究表明,确诊病例会影响投资者情绪,从而反映在股票收益上。基于此,疫苗接种的增长也有望带动投资者情绪,这可以反映在东盟股市的回报上。因此,本研究探讨了疫苗接种对东盟国家股票收益的影响。本研究通过使用面板回归模型,结合 HC 和 Driscoll 和 Kraay 稳健协方差矩阵估计量,考虑了 COVID-19 疫苗接种对股票收益的影响,解决了交叉相关性和异质性问题,填补了这一空白。本研究是该主题的早期研究之一,特别是在东盟地区。面板回归模型采用 HC 和 Driscoll 和 Kraay 稳健协方差矩阵估计量,使用了三个变量:股票日回报率、疫苗增长率和病例增长率。该模型使用了包含六个国家和 117 个日系列数据的平衡面板数据,共 702 个观测值。结果显示,每日疫苗接种增长率对股票收益产生负面影响,这与预期相反。这种结果可能是由于金融市场的不确定性以及模型中检测到的交叉相关性和异质性等原因导致的。我们可以看到,由于 COVID-19 给东盟金融市场带来了不确定性,投资者情绪仍然较为负面。这为我们提供了实际意义,即东盟成员国政府需要更积极地推动疫苗接种政策。