Wan Ruxing, Tang Ling, Guo Jing, Zhai Wenhui, Li Ling, Xie Yang, Bo Xin, Wu Jun
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, 100029, China.
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Nov 1;345:118731. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118731. Epub 2023 Aug 14.
As China's largest energy infrastructure, thermal power plant consumed approximately half of China's coal over the past decade and threatened air quality, human health and socioeconomic development. Thus, a series of control policies have been implemented to alleviate those impacts in China. Particularly, China has witnessed unprecedented declines in air pollutant emissions from thermal power plants since the ultra-low emissions (ULE) standards were implemented. In contrast, the effect of the ULE policy on air quality, health and cost benefits remains poorly understood. Therefore, this study estimates the improved air quality and associated health and economic benefits under the ULE standards in the thermal power sector by using a measure-specific approach, combining a bottom-up emission inventory, an atmospheric model, a health assessment model and a cost analysis model. The results show that all the control measures lead to reduced air pollution, and renovating pre-existing units (RPU) is the most effective. Compared to without implementing the ULE policy, the population-weighted average PM and O concentrations decreased by 1.50 μg/m and 0.87 ppm, and 67,831 premature deaths could be avoided nationally. Furthermore, the results also show the net economic benefits of combining health benefits and costs due to control measures are 109.92 billion Yuan (in 2015 value) in China. The comprehensive results reveal that the health benefits outweigh the direct policy. Based on these empirical findings and the specific circumstances of China, we suggest that RPU should be further promoted to the entire of China, and if necessary, establish a long-term compensation mechanism for inter-provincial interests and institute and enforce comprehensive policies that carefully consider the health impacts of policies. This study provides strong arguments for China's policy-making and considering tightening emission standards for thermal power plants worldwide.
作为中国最大的能源基础设施，火力发电厂在过去十年消耗了中国约一半的煤炭，对空气质量、人类健康和社会经济发展构成威胁。因此，中国实施了一系列控制政策以减轻这些影响。特别是，自实施超低排放（ULE）标准以来，中国火力发电厂的空气污染物排放量出现了前所未有的下降。相比之下，ULE政策对空气质量、健康和成本效益的影响仍知之甚少。因此，本研究采用一种特定措施方法，结合自下而上的排放清单、大气模型、健康评估模型和成本分析模型，估算了火力发电行业ULE标准下空气质量的改善以及相关的健康和经济效益。结果表明，所有控制措施都导致空气污染减少，改造现有机组（RPU）最为有效。与未实施ULE政策相比，全国人口加权平均PM和O浓度分别下降了1.50μg/m和0.87ppm，可避免67,831例过早死亡。此外，结果还表明，中国因控制措施带来的健康效益和成本的净经济效益为1099.2亿元（2015年价值）。综合结果显示，健康效益超过了直接政策成本。基于这些实证结果和中国的具体情况，我们建议将RPU进一步推广至全国，并在必要时建立省际利益长期补偿机制，制定并实施充分考虑政策对健康影响的综合政策。本研究为中国的政策制定以及考虑收紧全球火力发电厂排放标准提供了有力依据。
