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逆全球化背景下全球能源格局演变特征及影响因素分析

Analysis on evolution characteristics and influencing factors of global energy pattern under anti-globalization background.

作者信息

Zhang Yongli, Tang Kai

机构信息

College of Economics and Management, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin, 300222, China.

School of Management, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang, 050031, Hebei Province, China.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2023 Jul 31;9(8):e18824. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18824. eCollection 2023 Aug.

Abstract

With the rapid development of international energy trade, its structure has shown a trend toward complexity and network development. The traditional unilateral or bilateral perspective of causal analysis can no longer explain the changes in the international energy trade network at this stage. This paper constructs the world energy trade network from 2000 to 2020, analyzes the structural characteristics of the network, and adopts the quadratic assignment procedure method to deconstruct and explain the structural evolution of the world energy trade network. The study shows that the global energy trade network is increasingly connected and has small-world characteristics; the growing global energy demand coexists with the increasing energy monopoly; GDP difference and geographical distance are the decisive factors in forming an international energy trade network. It is suggested that countries should strengthen the integrated development of energy trade; formulate differentiated regional policies according to the structure and economic development characteristics of national and regional energy trade; pay more attention to the hub vertexes in the international energy trade network; and formulate differentiated energy strategies for countries and regions with different development levels, taking into account their development situations.

摘要

随着国际能源贸易的快速发展,其结构呈现出复杂和网络化发展的趋势。传统的因果分析单边或双边视角已无法解释现阶段国际能源贸易网络的变化。本文构建了2000年至2020年的世界能源贸易网络,分析了网络的结构特征,并采用二次指派程序法对世界能源贸易网络的结构演变进行解构和解释。研究表明,全球能源贸易网络的连通性日益增强且具有小世界特征;全球能源需求增长与能源垄断加剧并存;GDP差异和地理距离是形成国际能源贸易网络的决定性因素。建议各国加强能源贸易一体化发展;根据国家和地区能源贸易的结构及经济发展特点制定差异化的区域政策;更加关注国际能源贸易网络中的枢纽节点;并结合不同国家和地区的发展状况,为不同发展水平的国家和地区制定差异化的能源战略。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e2a6/10428041/877209ab5ab8/gr1.jpg

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