Single-step genomic predictions for heat tolerance of production yields in US Holsteins and Jerseys.

The physiological stress caused by excessive heat affects dairy cattle health and production. This study sought to investigate the effect of heat stress on test-day yields in US Holstein and Jersey cows and develop single-step genomic predictions to identify heat tolerant animals. Data included 12.8 million and 2.1 million test-day records, respectively, for 923,026 Holstein and 153,710 Jersey cows in 27 US states. From 2015 through 2021, test-day records from the first 5 lactations included milk, fat, and protein yields (kg). Cow records were included if they had at least 5 test-day records per lactation. Heat stress was quantified by analyzing the effect of a 5-d hourly average temperature-humidity index (THI) on observed test-day yields. Using a multiple trait repeatability model, a heat threshold (THI threshold) was determined fowr each breed based on the point that the average adjusted yields started to decrease, which was 69 for Holsteins and 72 for Jerseys. An additive genetic component of general production and heat tolerance production were estimated using a multiple trait reaction norm model and single-step genomic BLUP methodology. Random effects were regressed on a function of 5-d hourly average (THI) and THI threshold. The proportion of test-day records that occurred on or above the respective heat thresholds was 15% for Holstein and 10% for Jersey. Heritability of milk, fat, and protein yields under heat stress for Holsteins increased, with a small standard error, indicating that the additive genetic component for heat tolerance of these traits was observed. This was not as evident in Jersey traits. For Jersey, the permanent environment explained the same or more of the variation in fat and protein yield under heat stress indicating that nongenetic factors may determine heat tolerance for these Jersey traits. Correlations between the general genetic merit of production (in the absence of heat stress) and heat tolerance genetic merit of production traits were moderate in strength and negative. This indicated that selecting for general genetic merit without consideration of heat tolerance genetic merit of production may result in less favorable performance in hot and humid climates. A general genomic estimated breeding value for genetic merit and a heat tolerance genomic estimated breeding value were calculated for each animal. This study contributes to the investigation of the impact of heat stress on US dairy cattle production yields and offers a basis for the implementation of genomic selection. The results indicate that genomic selection for heat tolerance of production yields is possible for US Holsteins and Jerseys, but a study to validate the genomic predictions should be explored.