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中国2010 - 2021年新冠疫情前后性传播疾病的长期趋势。

A long trend of sexually transmitted diseases before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in China (2010-21).

作者信息

Xu Aifang, Zuo Zhongbao, Yang Chunli, Ye Fei, Wang Miaochan, Wu Jing, Tao Chengjing, Xun Yunhao, Li Zhaoyi, Liu Shourong, Huang Jinsong

机构信息

Department of Clinical Laboratory, Hangzhou Xixi Hospital, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310023, China.

Department of Clinical Laboratory, The 903rd Hospital of PLA, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310013, China.

出版信息

Sex Health. 2023 Dec;20(6):497-505. doi: 10.1071/SH22172.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The longer ongoing benefits of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in China are still unclear. We aimed to explore the changes in five STDs (AIDS, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, gonorrhoea, and syphilis) before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China, from 2010 to 2021.

METHODS

The number of the monthly reported cases of the five STDs were extracted from the website to construct the Joinpoint regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Eight indicators reflecting NPIs were chosen from the COVID-19 Government Response Tracker system. The STDs and eight indicators were used to establish the Multivariable generalised linear model (GLM) to calculate the incidence rate ratios (IRRs).

RESULTS

With the exception of hepatitis B, the other four STDs (AIDS, hepatitis C, gonorrhoea, and syphilis) had a positive average annual percent change over the past 12years. All the ARIMA models had passed the Ljung-Box test, and the predicted data fit well with the data from 2010 to 2019. All five STDs were significantly reduced in 2020 compared with 2019, with significant estimated IRRs ranging from 0.88 to 0.92. In the GLM, using data for the years 2020 (February-December) and 2021, the IRRs were not significant after adjusting for the eight indicators in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that the incidence of the five STDs decreased rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. A recovery of STDs in 2021 was found to occur compared with that in 2020, but the rising trend disappeared after adjusting for the NPIs. Our study demonstrated that NPIs have an effect on STDs, but the relaxation of NPI usage might lead to a resurgence.

摘要

背景

2019年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)非药物干预措施(NPIs)对中国性传播疾病(STDs)的长期持续益处仍不明确。我们旨在探讨2010年至2021年中国大陆COVID-19大流行之前、期间和之后五种性传播疾病(艾滋病、乙型肝炎、丙型肝炎、淋病和梅毒)的变化情况。

方法

从网站提取这五种性传播疾病每月报告病例数,构建Joinpoint回归模型和自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)模型。从COVID-19政府应对追踪系统中选取反映非药物干预措施的八个指标。将性传播疾病和八个指标用于建立多变量广义线性模型(GLM),以计算发病率比(IRRs)。

结果

除乙型肝炎外,其他四种性传播疾病(艾滋病、丙型肝炎、淋病和梅毒)在过去12年中平均年变化率为正。所有ARIMA模型均通过Ljung-Box检验,预测数据与2010年至2019年的数据拟合良好。与2019年相比,2020年所有五种性传播疾病均显著减少,估计发病率比在0.88至0.92之间。在GLM中,使用2020年(2月至12月)和2021年的数据,在多变量分析中调整八个指标后,发病率比不显著。

结论

我们的研究表明,2020年COVID-19大流行期间,这五种性传播疾病的发病率迅速下降。与2020年相比,2021年性传播疾病出现回升,但在调整非药物干预措施后上升趋势消失。我们的研究表明,非药物干预措施对性传播疾病有影响,但放松非药物干预措施的使用可能导致复发。

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