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Towards the Development of a System Dynamics Model for the Prediction of Lower Extremity Injuries.

作者信息

Liveris Nikolaos I, Papageorgiou George, Tsepis Elias, Fousekis Konstantinos, Tsarbou Charis, Xergia Sofia A

机构信息

Department of Physiotherapy School of Health Rehabilitation Sciences University of Patras, Rio, Achaia, GREECE.

SYSTEMA Research Centre, European University Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus.

出版信息

Int J Exerc Sci. 2023 Aug 1;16(3):1052-1065. doi: 10.70252/OJBI8280. eCollection 2023.


DOI:10.70252/OJBI8280
PMID:37649464
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10464767/
Abstract

Acute noncontact Lower Extremity (LE) injuries constitute a significant problem in team sports. Despite extensive research, current knowledge on the risk factors of LE injuries is limited to static simplistic models of instantaneous cause and effect relationships ignoring the time dimension and the embedded complexity of LE injuries. Even though complex systems approaches have been used in various cases to improve policy and intervention effectiveness, there is limited research on predicting and managing LE injuries. This creates an opportunity to fill the gap in the current literature by applying the System Dynamics (SD) methodology to model LE injuries. The proposed approach allows for synthesizing risk factors and examining their interaction. This paper makes the first step towards such an approach by developing a causal loop model revealing the etiology of LE injuries. A causal loop model for LE injuries is developed via an extensive literature review and brainstorming with experts. In contrast to the traditional static approaches, the proposed model reveals some of the complexity and nonlinear relationships of the various sports injury risk factors. The derived causal loop model may then be used to quantify these interactions and develop a simulation model. This will be achieved by operationalizing and incorporating the main risk factors that impact LE injuries in an integrated sports injury prediction model. In this way, plausible strategies for preventing LE injuries can be tested prior implementation and thereby achieve optimization of intervention programs.

摘要

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本文引用的文献

[1]
Anterior cruciate ligament injury mechanisms through a neurocognition lens: implications for injury screening.

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[2]
Does the Spraino low-friction shoe patch prevent lateral ankle sprain injury in indoor sports? A pilot randomised controlled trial with 510 participants with previous ankle injuries.

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[3]
A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review.

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[4]
Sports Injury Forecasting and Complexity: A Synergetic Approach.

Sports Med. 2020-10

[5]
Is the Acute: Chronic Workload Ratio (ACWR) Associated with Risk of Time-Loss Injury in Professional Team Sports? A Systematic Review of Methodology, Variables and Injury Risk in Practical Situations.

Sports Med. 2020-9

[6]
Recalibrating the risk of hamstring strain injury (HSI): A 2020 systematic review and meta-analysis of risk factors for index and recurrent hamstring strain injury in sport.

Br J Sports Med. 2020-4-16

[7]
Does Acute Fatigue Negatively Affect Intrinsic Risk Factors of the Lower Extremity Injury Risk Profile? A Systematic and Critical Review.

Sports Med. 2020-4

[8]
Mathematical modelling for health systems research: a systematic review of system dynamics and agent-based models.

BMC Health Serv Res. 2019-11-19

[9]
Injury prediction as a non-linear system.

Phys Ther Sport. 2020-1

[10]
The Association Between the Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio and Injury and its Application in Team Sports: A Systematic Review.

Sports Med. 2020-3

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