College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Key Laboratory of Mariculture (Ocean University of China), Ministry of Education, Qingdao, China.
Conserv Biol. 2024 Apr;38(2):e14174. doi: 10.1111/cobi.14174. Epub 2023 Nov 3.
Climate change is one of the major threats to coastal fish biodiversity, and optimization of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) is imminent. We predicted fish redistribution under climate change in coastal China Seas with joint species distribution modeling and prioritized areas for conservation with Zonation, for which we used core area zonation (CAZ) and additive benefit function (ABF). Based on our results, we devised an expansion plan of no-take MPAs. Under climate change, fish were redistributed northward along the coast. These redistributions were segmented by the Yangtze River estuary and its adjacent waters, indicating a possible biogeographical barrier. Under CAZ and ABF, significantly more fish habitat was conserved than under random prioritization (p < 0.001, Cohen's d = -0.36 and -0.62, respectively). The ABF better represented areas with higher species richness, whereas CAZ better represented core habitats for species with narrow distributions. Without accounting for species redistribution, the expanded MPAs were mainly distributed in the northwest of the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the north of the Yellow Sea, and the west of the Bohai Sea. When accounting for species redistribution, the proposed MPAs were mainly distributed in the north of the Bohai Sea and southwest of the Yellow Sea, corresponding to the northern species redistributions. These MPAs conserved less habitat for fishes at present but protected more and better quality habitat for fishes in 2050 and 2100 than those MPAs that did not account for species redistribution, indicating improved fish conservation under climate change. Incorporating species redistribution and trade-offs between areas with high species richness and areas that contain habitats for rare species are suggested to address coastal fish conservation under climate change. This work provides valuable information for fish conservation and is a precursor to systematic conservation planning along the coastlines of China Seas.
气候变化是沿海鱼类生物多样性的主要威胁之一，优化禁捕海洋保护区（MPA）迫在眉睫。我们使用联合物种分布模型预测中国沿海气候变化下鱼类的再分布，并使用分区法（Zonation）对保护区域进行优先级排序，为此我们使用了核心区分区（CAZ）和附加效益函数（ABF）。根据我们的结果，我们设计了一个禁捕 MPA 的扩展计划。在气候变化下，鱼类沿着海岸向北重新分布。这些再分布被长江口及其邻近水域分割，这表明可能存在一个生物地理屏障。在 CAZ 和 ABF 下，与随机优先级排序相比，保留了更多的鱼类栖息地（p<0.001，Cohen's d 分别为-0.36 和-0.62）。ABF 更好地代表了物种丰富度较高的区域，而 CAZ 更好地代表了分布范围较窄的物种的核心栖息地。如果不考虑物种再分布，扩展的 MPA 主要分布在中国南海的西北部、东海、黄海的北部和渤海的西部。考虑到物种再分布，建议的 MPA 主要分布在渤海北部和黄海西南部，与北部物种再分布相对应。这些 MPA 目前为鱼类保留的栖息地较少，但在 2050 年和 2100 年为鱼类保护的栖息地更多、质量更好，比不考虑物种再分布的 MPA 更好，这表明在气候变化下鱼类保护得到了改善。建议在考虑物种再分布的同时，权衡高物种丰富度区域和包含稀有物种栖息地的区域，以应对气候变化下的沿海鱼类保护。这项工作为鱼类保护提供了有价值的信息，是中国沿海系统保护规划的前奏。
