Summary Tests of Introgression Are Highly Sensitive to Rate Variation Across Lineages.

The evolutionary implications and frequency of hybridization and introgression are increasingly being recognized across the tree of life. To detect hybridization from multi-locus and genome-wide sequence data, a popular class of methods are based on summary statistics from subsets of 3 or 4 taxa. However, these methods often carry the assumption of a constant substitution rate across lineages and genes, which is commonly violated in many groups. In this work, we quantify the effects of rate variation on the D test (also known as ABBA-BABA test), the D3 test, and HyDe. All 3 tests are used widely across a range of taxonomic groups, in part because they are very fast to compute. We consider rate variation across species lineages, across genes, their lineage-by-gene interaction, and rate variation across gene-tree edges. We simulated species networks according to a birth-death-hybridization process, so as to capture a range of realistic species phylogenies. For all 3 methods tested, we found a marked increase in the false discovery of reticulation (type-1 error rate) when there is rate variation across species lineages. The D3 test was the most sensitive, with around 80% type-1 error, such that D3 appears to more sensitive to a departure from the clock than to the presence of reticulation. For all 3 tests, the power to detect hybridization events decreased as the number of hybridization events increased, indicating that multiple hybridization events can obscure one another if they occur within a small subset of taxa. Our study highlights the need to consider rate variation when using site-based summary statistics, and points to the advantages of methods that do not require assumptions on evolutionary rates across lineages or across genes.