Lifetime probability of developing cancer and dying from cancer in Canada, 1997 to 2020.

BACKGROUND

The lifetime probabilities of developing (LP) cancer and dying (LP) from cancer are useful summary statistics that describe the impact of cancer within a population. This study aims to present detailed LP and LP for cancer by sex and cancer type and to describe changes in these lifetime probabilities over time among the Canadian population.

DATA AND METHODS

Cancer incidence data (1997 to 2018) were obtained from the Canadian Cancer Registry. All-cause and cancer mortality data (1997 to 2020) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics - Death Database. LP and LP were calculated using the DevCan software, and trends over time were estimated using Joinpoint.

RESULTS

The LP for all cancers combined was 44.3% in Canada in 2018, with all results excluding Quebec. At the age of 60, the conditional probability of developing cancer was very similar (44.0% for males and 38.2% for females). The LP was 22.5% among the Canadian population in 2020, while the probability of dying from cancer conditional on surviving until age 60 was 25.1% for males and 20.5% for females. Generally, males experienced higher LP and LP for most specific cancers compared with females.

INTERPRETATION

LP and LP for cancer mirror cancer incidence and mortality rates. Cancer-specific changes in these probabilities over time are indicative of the cancer trends resulting from cancer prevention, screening, detection, and treatment. These changes in LP and LP provide insight into the shifting landscape of the Canadian cancer burden.