Conscious expectancy rather than associative strength elicits brain activity during single-cue fear conditioning.

The neurocognitive processes underlying Pavlovian conditioning in humans are still largely debated. The conventional view is that conditioned responses (CRs) emerge automatically as a function of the contingencies between a conditioned stimulus (CS) and an unconditioned stimulus (US). As such, the associative strength model asserts that the frequency or amplitude of CRs reflects the strength of the CS-US associations. Alternatively, the expectation model asserts that the presentation of the CS triggers conscious expectancy of the US, which is responsible for the production of CRs. The present study tested the hypothesis that there are dissociable brain networks related to the expectancy and associative strength theories using a single-cue fear conditioning paradigm with a pseudo-random intermittent reinforcement schedule during functional magnetic resonance imaging. Participants' (n = 21) trial-by-trial expectations of receiving shock displayed a significant linear effect consistent with the expectation model. We also found a positive linear relationship between the expectancy model and activity in frontoparietal brain areas including the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) and dorsomedial PFC. While an exploratory analysis found a linear relationship consistent with the associated strength model in the insula and early visual cortex, our primary results are consistent with the view that conscious expectancy contributes to CRs.