Okonta Simon D, Olaomi John
Department of Statistics, School of Applied Sciences and Technology, Delta State Polytechnic, Otefe-Oghara, Nigeria.
School of Statistics, College of Science, Engineering and Technology, University of South Africa, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Jamba. 2023 Sep 15;15:1444. doi: 10.4102/jamba.v15i1.1444. eCollection 2023.
Flooding disasters in most parts of the world has become worrisome to the government and to the humanitarian emergency organisations. In this article, the authors proffer a mathematical solution to minimise the cost of rescue operations, using stochastic programming of a multicommodity and multimodel network flow. In the formulation, the authors considered four supply depots: national centre depot (NCD), three local distribution centres (LDCs) and six points of distribution (PODs). Two vehicle types were helicopters by air and trucks by land. Three basic types of emergency relief materials include food, water and medical items. Three basic scenarios were mild, medium and severe situations with associated probabilities of 0.25, 0.5 and 0.25, respectively. The formulated model was solved using the LINGO software. The results show that the formulated model effectively reduced the cost of distribution during emergency rescue operation, as there was a thin line between demand and met demand. For the scope of this model, a minimised cost of about $1016673.37 is sufficient to carry out successful rescue operations.
The estimated amount of $1016673.37 becomes a benchmark for the government, research agencies and other developmental agencies for the purpose of planning. By using the air and road transport modes, and allowing direct and indirect transportation to the PODs, it saved time, resulting in many lives being saved.
世界大部分地区的洪水灾害已令政府和人道主义应急组织忧心忡忡。在本文中,作者提出一种数学解决方案,通过多商品和多模式网络流的随机规划来尽量降低救援行动成本。在模型构建中,作者考虑了四个供应站:国家中心供应站(NCD)、三个地方配送中心(LDC)和六个分发点(POD)。两种运输车辆类型分别是空中的直升机和陆地的卡车。三种基本类型的应急救援物资包括食品、水和医疗用品。三种基本情景为轻度、中度和重度情况,其相关概率分别为0.25、0.5和0.25。使用LINGO软件求解所构建的模型。结果表明,所构建的模型在应急救援行动中有效降低了配送成本,因为需求与满足的需求之间差距不大。对于该模型范围而言,约1016673.37美元的最低成本足以开展成功的救援行动。
1016673.37美元的估计金额成为政府、研究机构和其他发展机构进行规划的基准。通过使用空中和公路运输方式,并允许直接和间接运输到分发点,节省了时间,从而挽救了许多生命。