State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering, Human Phenome Institute, and School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China, Shanghai, China.
Fudan University Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences, Taizhou, China.
Gut. 2023 Nov 24;72(12):2354-2363. doi: 10.1136/gutjnl-2023-330691.
OBJECTIVE: China concentrates a large part of the global burden of HBV infection, playing a pivotal role in achieving the WHO 2030 global hepatitis elimination target. METHODS: We searched for studies reporting HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence in five databases until January 2023. Eligible data were pooled using a generalised linear mixed model with random effects to obtain summary HBsAg seroprevalence. Linear regression was used to estimate annual percentage change (APC) and HBsAg prevalence in 2021. RESULTS: 3740 studies, including 231 million subjects, were meta-analysed. HBsAg seroprevalence for the general population decreased from 9.6% (95% CI 8.4 to 10.9%) in 1973-1984 to 3.0% (95% CI 2.1 to 3.9%) in 2021 (APC=-3.77; p<0.0001). Decreases were more pronounced in children <5 years (APC=-7.72; p<0.0001) and 5-18 years (-7.58; p<0.0001), than in people aged 19-59 years (-2.44; p<0.0001), whereas HBsAg seroprevalence increased in persons ≥60 years (2.84; p=0.0007). Significant decreases were observed in all six major Chinese regions, in both men (APC=-3.90; p<0.0001) and women (-1.82; p<0.0001) and in high-risk populations. An estimated 43.3 million (95% uncertainty interval 30.7-55.9) persons remained infected with HBV in China in 2021 (3.0%), with notable heterogeneity by region (<1.5% in North China to>6% in Taiwan and Hong Kong) and age (0.3%, 1.0%, 4.7% and 5.6% for <5 years, 5-18 years, 19-59 years and 60 years, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: China has experienced remarkable decreases in HBV infection over the last four decades, but variations in HBsAg prevalence persist in subpopulations. Ongoing prevention of HBV transmission is needed to meet HBV elimination targets by 2030. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO (CRD42021284217).
目的:中国集中了全球很大一部分乙型肝炎病毒(HBV)感染负担,在实现世界卫生组织 2030 年全球消除肝炎目标方面发挥着关键作用。
方法:我们在五个数据库中检索了截至 2023 年 1 月报告 HBV 表面抗原(HBsAg)血清流行率的研究。使用具有随机效应的广义线性混合模型对合格数据进行汇总,以获得 HBsAg 血清流行率的综合估计值。线性回归用于估计 2021 年的年度百分比变化(APC)和 HBsAg 流行率。
结果:对 3740 项研究(涉及 2.31 亿受试者)进行了荟萃分析。一般人群的 HBsAg 血清流行率从 1973-1984 年的 9.6%(95%置信区间 8.4-10.9%)降至 2021 年的 3.0%(95%置信区间 2.1-3.9%)(APC=-3.77;p<0.0001)。5 岁以下儿童(APC=-7.72;p<0.0001)和 5-18 岁儿童(APC=-7.58;p<0.0001)的降幅较 19-59 岁人群(APC=-2.44;p<0.0001)更为显著,而 60 岁及以上人群的 HBsAg 血清流行率则有所增加(APC=2.84;p=0.0007)。在中国的六个主要地区,男性(APC=-3.90;p<0.0001)和女性(APC=-1.82;p<0.0001),以及高危人群中,均观察到显著下降。2021 年中国估计仍有 4330 万人(95%不确定区间 3070-5590 万人)感染 HBV(3.0%),区域间(华北地区<1.5%,台湾和香港地区>6%)和年龄间(<5 岁、5-18 岁、19-59 岁和 60 岁分别为 0.3%、1.0%、4.7%和 5.6%)存在显著异质性。
结论:过去四十年,中国的 HBV 感染显著下降,但在亚人群中,HBsAg 流行率仍存在差异。需要持续预防 HBV 传播,以实现 2030 年消除肝炎目标。
试验注册编号:PROSPERO(CRD42021284217)。
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