A multicompartment population PK model to predict tenofovir and emtricitabine mucosal tissue concentrations for HIV prevention.

A priori use of mathematical modeling and simulation to predict outcomes from incomplete adherence or reduced frequency dosing strategies may mitigate the risk of clinical trial failure with HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis regimens. We developed a semi-physiologic population pharmacokinetic model for two antiretrovirals and their active intracellular metabolites in three mucosal tissues using pharmacokinetic data from a phase I, dose-ranging study. Healthy female volunteers were given a single oral dose of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (150, 300, or 600 mg) or emtricitabine (100, 200, or 400 mg). Simultaneous co-modeling of all data was performed on a Linux cluster. A 16 compartment, bolus input, linear kinetic model best described the data, containing 986 observations in 23 individuals across three matrices and four analytes. Combined with a defined efficacious concentration target in mucosal tissues, this model can be used to optimize the dose and dosing frequency through Monte-Carlo simulations.