Grazing hinders seed dispersal during crop failure in a declining oak woodland.

Masting, the synchronized production of variable quantities of seeds, is a global phenomenon in diverse ecosystems, including treed grazing systems where trees and grazing animals coexist. This phenomenon can be interspersed with years of extreme crop failure, whose frequency and unpredictability are increasing. Yet, the combined impact of crop failure and grazing on seed dispersal and seed-to-seedling transition remains poorly understood. To address this concern, we investigated rodent-mediated cork-oak (Quercus suber) acorn predation, dispersal, and seedling emergence in cattle grazed and non-grazed areas in central Portugal during years with contrasting masting seasons. We found that the acorns supplied in the crop failure year were dispersed more rapidly and over longer distances than those supplied in the crop success year when other acorns were naturally available. The crop failure year also had 83 % more dispersal events and 84 % more predated acorns than the reproductive success year. However, the higher acorn predation was offset by a 2.4-fold higher percentage of unpredated dispersed acorns recruiting into seedlings. Both years ended up recruiting a similar number of seedlings. Acorns emerged seedlings 3.4 times farther in the crop failure year than in the crop success year. Cattle grazing was the main constraint on seed dispersal distance by rodents, reducing it by 53 %. Our study provides empirical evidence that cattle grazing modulates how an extreme crop failure year can surprisingly be an opportunity for the few existing acorns to have seedlings established farther apart than in a crop success year. If we are to better manage and preserve the high conservation and socio-economic value of Mediterranean cork oak woodlands in the face of climate change, we must prioritize fecund trees and carefully manage seed dispersal factors such as cattle grazing, particularly during years of crop failure.